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Food basket in Douentza

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,114–4,876

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,357–5,404

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,114 and 4,876 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,357 and 5,404 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Douentza: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,114 and 4,876 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,357 and 5,404 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,332); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,041–4,792 3,657 2,467–6,802
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,689–4,973 3,629 2,110–7,127
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,114–4,876 3,215 1,177–7,859
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,063–5,122 3,271 1,168–8,332
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,357–5,404 3,452 1,792–7,559
Cost history (92 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,600
Jul 20263,600
Jun 20262,400
May 20262,724
Apr 20264,020
Mar 20263,180
Feb 20264,140
Sept 20254,350
Aug 20254,050
May 20254,470
Apr 20254,728
Jan 20254,200
Sept 20244,740
May 20243,120
Apr 20243,360
Mar 20243,360
Feb 20243,210
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,500
Jun 20234,800
May 20234,500
Apr 20234,500
Feb 20234,400
Jan 20234,800
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20223,600
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20227,200
Aug 20227,200
Jul 20226,000
Jun 20225,400
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20224,500
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,600
Oct 20213,600
Sept 20213,600
Jun 20213,600
May 20213,000
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20213,756
Dec 20201,896
Nov 20201,896
Oct 20202,376
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,700
Jul 20202,280
Jun 20202,220
May 20202,280
Apr 20202,220
Mar 20202,220
Feb 20202,220
Jan 20202,124
Dec 20192,220
Nov 20192,220
Oct 20192,220
Sept 20192,220
Aug 20192,700
Jul 20192,220
Jun 20192,244
May 20192,700
Apr 20192,220
Mar 20192,220
Feb 20192,220
Jan 20192,460
Dec 20182,220
Nov 20182,460
Oct 20183,120
Sept 20183,120
Aug 20183,060
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20183,060
May 20182,700
Apr 20182,664
Mar 20182,484
Feb 20182,328
Jan 20182,244
Dec 20172,268
Nov 20171,920
Oct 20172,700
Sept 20172,700
Jul 20172,640
Jun 20172,640
May 20172,532
Apr 20172,196
Mar 20172,100

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189