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Sorghum in Goundam

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 5 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

174–412

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

159–492

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

20%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 65% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 412 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 492 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Goundam: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 65% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 174 and 412 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 492 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,216); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–396 268 188–602 330 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 202–441 264 157–886 302 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 174–412 242 115–603 257 20%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 165–498 238 134–1,216 237 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 159–492 240 134–852 257 –
Price history (87 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026260
Jun 2026245
May 2026750
Apr 2026378
Dec 2025150
Apr 2025310
Feb 2025200
Dec 2024150
Oct 2024305
Sept 2024300
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024260
Feb 2024250
Dec 2023250
Oct 2023245
Sept 2023200
Aug 2023200
Jul 2023275
May 2023200
Apr 2023258
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023205
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022210
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022405
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022283
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022170
Dec 2021170
Nov 2021170
Jul 2021190
Jun 2021190
May 2021190
Apr 2021185
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021185
Jan 2021185
Dec 2020177
Nov 2020177
Oct 2020190
Sept 2020190
Jul 2020190
Jun 2020190
May 2020190
Apr 2020190
Mar 2020190
Feb 2020190
Jan 2020169
Dec 2019188
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019240
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018289
Aug 2018282
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018213
Mar 2018210
Feb 2018195
Jan 2018186
Dec 2017177
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017150
Sept 2017187
Aug 2017180
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017150
May 2017150
Apr 2017153
Mar 2017150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2037-65-retail-kg.