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Rice (local) in Goundam

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

317–508

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

279–515

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 279 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Goundam: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 279 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 825); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 347–453 373 313–609 475 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 338–506 376 287–758 483 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 317–508 376 289–799 432 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 301–521 368 256–825 410 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 279–515 354 214–755 390 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026372
Jun 2026323
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Dec 2025378
Apr 2025510
Feb 2025405
Dec 2024378
Oct 2024542
Sept 2024465
May 2024395
Apr 2024425
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024335
Dec 2023352
Oct 2023475
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023452
Mar 2023410
Feb 2023405
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022350
Oct 2022440
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022410
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022385
May 2022355
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022345
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022325
Dec 2021315
Nov 2021380
Sept 2021397
Aug 2021350
Jul 2021320
Jun 2021325
May 2021350
Apr 2021300
Mar 2021290
Feb 2021275
Jan 2021275
Dec 2020328
Nov 2020328
Oct 2020333
Sept 2020315
Jul 2020305
Jun 2020305
May 2020305
Apr 2020305
Mar 2020280
Feb 2020280
Jan 2020263
Dec 2019275
Nov 2019268
Oct 2019277
Sept 2019300
Aug 2019300
Jul 2019325
Jun 2019300
May 2019300
Apr 2019125Data error
Mar 2019300
Feb 2019287
Jan 2019337
Dec 2018300
Nov 2018338
Sept 2018360
Aug 2018362
Jun 2018300
May 2018300
Apr 2018300
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018282
Jan 2018275
Dec 2017325
Nov 2017340
Oct 2017347
Sept 2017340
Aug 2017315
Jul 2017305
Jun 2017328
May 2017348
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2037-71-retail-kg.