Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Goundam

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

266–495

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

248–558

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

21%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 266 and 495 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 248 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 21%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Goundam: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 266 and 495 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 248 and 558 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 21%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 946); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 334–449 373 315–578 407 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 316–516 373 283–744 428 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 266–495 339 227–778 342 21%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 261–544 343 209–946 342 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 248–558 326 197–914 331 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026372
Jun 2026338
May 2026430
Apr 2026365
Mar 2026320
Dec 2025300
Feb 2025350
Dec 2024300
Oct 2024412
Sept 2024445
May 2024375
Apr 2024380
Mar 2024372
Feb 2024375
Dec 2023346
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023328
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023305
Apr 2023280
Mar 2023355
Feb 2023365
Dec 2022388
Nov 2022320
Oct 2022428
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022412
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022425
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022365
Feb 2022333
Jan 2022205
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021235
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020220
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020218
Jul 2020220
Jun 2020204
May 2020190
Apr 2020195
Mar 2020190
Feb 2020190
Jan 2020212
Dec 2019188
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019282
May 2019255
Apr 2019265
Mar 2019260
Feb 2019272
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018315
Aug 2018315
Jun 2018282
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018230
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017250

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2037-73-retail-kg.