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Food basket in Goundam

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,187–5,942

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,980–6,693

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,470 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,187 and 5,942 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,980 and 6,693 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Goundam: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,470 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,187 and 5,942 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,980 and 6,693 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 11,348); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,010–5,393 4,470 3,783–6,932
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,787–6,198 4,472 3,392–8,931
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,187–5,942 4,068 2,726–9,341
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,132–6,533 4,111 2,510–11,348
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,980–6,693 3,907 2,367–10,972
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,470
Jun 20264,056
May 20265,160
Apr 20264,380
Mar 20263,840
Dec 20253,600
Feb 20254,200
Dec 20243,600
Oct 20244,940
Sept 20245,340
May 20244,500
Apr 20244,560
Mar 20244,460
Feb 20244,500
Dec 20234,150
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20233,936
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,660
Apr 20233,360
Mar 20234,260
Feb 20234,380
Dec 20224,656
Nov 20223,840
Oct 20225,136
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,944
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20225,100
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,380
Feb 20223,996
Jan 20222,460
Dec 20212,400
Nov 20212,820
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20213,000
Jul 20213,000
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,700
Jan 20212,700
Dec 20202,640
Nov 20202,640
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,616
Jul 20202,640
Jun 20202,442
May 20202,280
Apr 20202,340
Mar 20202,280
Feb 20202,280
Jan 20202,544
Dec 20192,256
Nov 20192,256
Oct 20193,000
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,384
May 20193,060
Apr 20193,180
Mar 20193,120
Feb 20193,264
Jan 20192,700
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,700
Oct 20183,600
Sept 20183,780
Aug 20183,780
Jun 20183,384
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20182,760
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20173,000
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20173,000

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189