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Maize in Gao

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

326–467

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

320–581

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 326 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 320 and 581 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Gao: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 326 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 320 and 581 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 981); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 360–426 396 322–454 489 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 342–440 393 314–477 496 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 326–467 387 300–641 507 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 321–510 384 304–772 495 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 320–581 383 316–981 494 –
Price history (258 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026403
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026420
Dec 2025400
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025456
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025400
Jan 2025430
Dec 2024450
Nov 2024450
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024475
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024450
Jun 2024400
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022328
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021281
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021225
May 2021225
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021225
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020225
Nov 2020225
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020225
May 2020237
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020225
Feb 2020225
Jan 2020225
Dec 2019225
Nov 2019225
Oct 2019225
Sept 2019225
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019225
Jun 2019225
May 2019225
Apr 2019225
Mar 2019225
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019245
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018245
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018231
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018218
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017462Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016194
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015195
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015181
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015175
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014183
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014180
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013192
Mar 2012250
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Dec 2011250
Oct 2011250
Sept 2011250
Aug 2011250
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011188
Jan 2011188
Dec 2010165
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010180
Sept 2010178
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010178
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010177
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010188
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009177
Oct 2009192
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009196
Jun 2009185
May 2009200
Apr 2009200
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009200
Jan 2009190
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008181
Oct 2008215
Sept 2008206
Aug 2008196
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008175
May 2008165
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007150
May 2007150
Apr 2007144
Mar 2007130
Feb 2007120
Jan 2007125
Dec 2006124
Nov 2006116
Oct 2006126
Sept 2006148
Aug 2006150
Jul 2006150
Jun 2006150
May 2006150
Apr 2006150
Mar 2006150
Feb 2006157
Jan 2006125
Dec 2005125
Nov 2005170
Oct 2005188
Sept 2005233
Aug 2005225
Jul 2005228
Jun 2005200
May 2005197
Apr 2005175
Mar 2005148
Feb 2005132
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004125
Nov 2004122
Oct 2004127
Sept 2004125
Aug 2004108
Jul 2004108
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004100
Mar 2004100
Feb 2004100
Jan 200496
Dec 2003100
Nov 2003100
Oct 2003125
Sept 2003125
Aug 2003145
Jul 2003150
Jun 2003150
May 2003150
Apr 2003154
Mar 2003162
Feb 2003175
Jan 2003175

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-248-51-retail-kg.