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Sorghum in Gao

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

335–467

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

315–513

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 335 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 315 and 513 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Gao: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 335 and 467 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 315 and 513 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 661); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 368–425 393 347–468 482 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 349–441 392 337–530 481 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 335–467 386 325–597 484 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 327–489 384 305–643 472 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 315–513 380 274–661 470 –
Price history (256 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026395
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026400
Dec 2025400
Oct 2025412
Sept 2025420
Aug 2025408
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024475
Jun 2024425
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021250
Dec 2020250
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019250
Nov 2019256
Oct 2019260
Sept 2019260
Aug 2019260
Jul 2019260
Jun 2019260
May 2019260
Apr 2019260
Mar 2019260
Feb 2019260
Jan 2019260
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018260
Oct 2018260
Sept 2018260
Aug 2018260
Jul 2018260
Jun 2018260
May 2018260
Apr 2018260
Mar 2018260
Feb 2018261
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014180
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014180
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013192
Mar 2012250
Jan 2012250
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011190
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011194
Jan 2011181
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010177
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010177
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010176
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009177
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009185
Jun 2009181
May 2009185
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009160
Dec 2008156
Nov 2008162
Oct 2008190
Sept 2008181
Aug 2008181
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008162
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007150
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007139
Jan 2007125
Dec 2006124
Nov 2006116
Oct 2006128
Sept 2006150
Aug 2006152
Jul 2006152
Jun 2006168
May 2006168
Apr 2006152
Mar 2006153
Feb 2006163
Jan 2006150
Dec 2005150
Nov 2005192
Oct 2005219
Sept 2005232
Aug 2005225
Jul 2005228
Jun 2005200
May 2005200
Apr 2005181
Mar 2005169
Feb 2005140
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004125
Nov 2004122
Oct 2004128
Sept 2004125
Aug 2004125
Jul 2004112
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004100
Mar 2004100
Feb 2004100
Jan 200494
Dec 2003100
Nov 2003112
Oct 2003150
Sept 2003163
Aug 2003170
Jul 2003175
Jun 2003175
May 2003176
Apr 2003180
Mar 2003188
Feb 2003200
Jan 2003220

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-248-65-retail-kg.