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Rice (local) in Gao

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

487–652

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

458–641

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 487 and 652 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 458 and 641 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Gao: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 487 and 652 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 458 and 641 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 507–617 534 480–688 694 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 498–637 536 449–653 721 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 487–652 536 398–682 698 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 469–665 529 407–773 650 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 458–641 528 390–655 649 –
Price history (206 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026533
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026600
May 2026540
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026550
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025575
Oct 2025710
Sept 2025750
Aug 2025750
Jul 2025535
Jun 2025700
May 2025748
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024650
Oct 2024750
Sept 2024750
Aug 2024750
Jul 2024750
Jun 2024675
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024575
Jan 2024550
Nov 2023675
Oct 2023675
Sept 2023630
Aug 2023575
Jul 2023556
Jun 2023550
May 2023550
Apr 2023550
Mar 2023600
Feb 2023600
Dec 2022550
Nov 2022575
Oct 2022556
Sept 2022503
Aug 2022488
Jul 2022488
Jun 2022488
May 2022488
Apr 2022485
Mar 2022473
Feb 2022473
Jan 2022473
Dec 2021485
Nov 2021488
Oct 2021468
Sept 2021463
Aug 2021463
Jul 2021463
Jun 2021463
May 2021462
Apr 2021452
Mar 2021438
Feb 2021438
Dec 2020434
Nov 2020483
Oct 2020478
Sept 2020463
Aug 2020463
Jul 2020462
Jun 2020431
May 2020413
Apr 2020413
Mar 2020412
Feb 2020412
Jan 2020412
Dec 2019412
Nov 2019459
Oct 2019467
Sept 2019437
Aug 2019437
Jul 2019431
Jun 2019412
May 2019412
Apr 2019412
Mar 2019405
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019434
Dec 2018403
Nov 2018434
Oct 2018437
Sept 2018412
Aug 2018412
Jul 2018412
Jun 2018412
May 2018412
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018393
Feb 2018387
Jan 2018387
Dec 2017387
Nov 2017397
Oct 2017455
Sept 2017462
Aug 2017462
Jul 2017462
Jun 2017463
May 2017429
Apr 2017425
Mar 2017425
Feb 2017416
Jan 2017424
Dec 2016440
Nov 2016461
Oct 2016463
Sept 2016413
Aug 2016413
Jul 2016413
Jun 2016413
May 2016397
Apr 2016388
Mar 2016388
Feb 2016388
Jan 2016388
Dec 2015388
Nov 2015388
Oct 2015388
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015375
Dec 2014388
Nov 2014388
Oct 2014388
Sept 2014388
Aug 2014388
Jul 2014388
Jun 2014388
May 2014388
Apr 2014388
Mar 2014388
Feb 2014384
Jan 2014375
Dec 2013375
Nov 2013313
Mar 2012416
Feb 2012406
Jan 2012409
Dec 2011425
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011392
Aug 2011388
Jul 2011388
Jun 2011388
May 2011384
Apr 2011375
Mar 2011362
Feb 2011359
Jan 2011356
Dec 2010355
Nov 2010369
Oct 2010365
Sept 2010353
Aug 2010361
Jul 2010375
Jun 2010375
May 2010362
Apr 2010370
Mar 2010362
Feb 2010362
Jan 2010360
Dec 2009347
Nov 2009346
Oct 2009352
Sept 2009375
Aug 2009388
Jul 2009368
Jun 2009362
May 2009362
Apr 2009366
Mar 2009388
Feb 2009378
Jan 2009342
Dec 2008369
Nov 2008419
Oct 2008440
Sept 2008416
Aug 2008398
Jul 2008412
Jun 2008397
May 2008362
Apr 2008359
Mar 2008338
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007283
Nov 2007294
Oct 2007303
Sept 2007312
Aug 2007312
Jul 2007312
Jun 2007306
May 2007294
Apr 2007309
Mar 2007298
Feb 2007288
Jan 2007300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-248-71-retail-kg.