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Millet in Gao

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

310–483

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

302–510

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 310 and 483 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 302 and 510 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Gao: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 310 and 483 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 302 and 510 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 336–426 357 321–449 482 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 324–452 360 314–501 478 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 310–483 357 288–641 474 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 301–492 354 274–537 479 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 302–510 354 272–572 483 –
Price history (258 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026354
Jul 2026370
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026400
Dec 2025400
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025520
Apr 2025475
Mar 2025460
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024525
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024493
Jun 2024450
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022430
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022443
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022413
May 2022425
Apr 2022410
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022350
Jan 2022343
Dec 2021331
Nov 2021276
Oct 2021265
Sept 2021265
Aug 2021265
Jul 2021265
Jun 2021265
May 2021265
Apr 2021265
Mar 2021265
Feb 2021265
Jan 2021265
Dec 2020265
Nov 2020265
Oct 2020265
Sept 2020265
Aug 2020271
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019250
Nov 2019241
Oct 2019235
Sept 2019235
Aug 2019235
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019235
May 2019235
Apr 2019235
Mar 2019235
Feb 2019235
Jan 2019272
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018272
Oct 2018275
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018275
Jun 2018275
May 2018275
Apr 2018270
Mar 2018265
Feb 2018262
Jan 2018257
Dec 2017265
Nov 2017265
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017275
Jul 2017272
Jun 2017275
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017230
Feb 2017233
Jan 2017235
Dec 2016225
Nov 2016244
Oct 2016225
Sept 2016225
Aug 2016225
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016206
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015206
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014215
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
May 2014225
Apr 2014225
Mar 2014225
Feb 2014225
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013225
Mar 2012256
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Dec 2011250
Oct 2011175
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011181
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010165
Nov 2010162
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010176
Aug 2010176
Jul 2010196
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010177
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010176
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009192
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009185
Jun 2009181
May 2009185
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008194
Oct 2008210
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008188
Jun 2008175
May 2008155
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007150
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150
Dec 2006141
Nov 2006121
Oct 2006135
Sept 2006165
Aug 2006175
Jul 2006175
Jun 2006175
May 2006175
Apr 2006175
Mar 2006175
Feb 2006173
Jan 2006150
Dec 2005150
Nov 2005191
Oct 2005225
Sept 2005232
Aug 2005225
Jul 2005231
Jun 2005200
May 2005193
Apr 2005179
Mar 2005175
Feb 2005150
Jan 2005150
Dec 2004150
Nov 2004140
Oct 2004144
Sept 2004125
Aug 2004125
Jul 2004112
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004100
Mar 2004100
Feb 2004100
Jan 2004106
Dec 2003125
Nov 2003138
Oct 2003161
Sept 2003167
Aug 2003170
Jul 2003175
Jun 2003175
May 2003176
Apr 2003180
Mar 2003175
Feb 2003175
Jan 2003198

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-248-73-retail-kg.