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Food basket in Gao

Gao, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,719–5,799

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,618–6,123

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,245 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,719 and 5,799 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,618 and 6,123 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gao: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,245 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,719 and 5,799 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,618 and 6,123 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,031–5,114 4,290 3,854–5,392
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,885–5,428 4,318 3,764–6,014
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,719–5,799 4,286 3,456–7,692
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,609–5,901 4,251 3,288–6,446
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,618–6,123 4,244 3,267–6,863
Cost history (258 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,245
Jul 20264,440
Jun 20264,800
May 20264,800
Apr 20264,800
Mar 20264,800
Feb 20264,800
Jan 20264,800
Dec 20254,800
Oct 20254,800
Sept 20254,800
Aug 20254,800
Jul 20254,800
Jun 20254,800
May 20256,246
Apr 20255,700
Mar 20255,520
Feb 20256,000
Jan 20256,000
Dec 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,300
Aug 20246,600
Jul 20245,916
Jun 20245,400
May 20244,800
Apr 20244,800
Mar 20244,800
Jan 20244,800
Nov 20234,800
Oct 20234,800
Sept 20234,800
Aug 20234,800
Jul 20234,800
Jun 20234,800
May 20234,800
Apr 20234,800
Mar 20234,800
Feb 20234,800
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20224,800
Oct 20225,160
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,316
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,956
May 20225,100
Apr 20224,920
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,200
Jan 20224,116
Dec 20213,972
Nov 20213,312
Oct 20213,180
Sept 20213,180
Aug 20213,180
Jul 20213,180
Jun 20213,180
May 20213,180
Apr 20213,180
Mar 20213,180
Feb 20213,180
Jan 20213,180
Dec 20203,180
Nov 20203,180
Oct 20203,180
Sept 20203,180
Aug 20203,252
Jul 20203,000
Jun 20203,000
May 20203,000
Apr 20203,000
Mar 20203,000
Feb 20203,000
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20193,000
Nov 20192,892
Oct 20192,820
Sept 20192,820
Aug 20192,820
Jul 20192,820
Jun 20192,820
May 20192,820
Apr 20192,820
Mar 20192,820
Feb 20192,820
Jan 20193,264
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,270
Oct 20183,300
Sept 20183,300
Aug 20183,300
Jul 20183,300
Jun 20183,300
May 20183,300
Apr 20183,240
Mar 20183,180
Feb 20183,144
Jan 20183,084
Dec 20173,180
Nov 20173,180
Oct 20173,300
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,300
Jul 20173,270
Jun 20173,300
May 20173,000
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20172,760
Feb 20172,796
Jan 20172,820
Dec 20162,700
Nov 20162,928
Oct 20162,700
Sept 20162,700
Aug 20162,700
Jul 20162,700
Jun 20162,700
May 20162,472
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,472
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,400
Jan 20152,400
Dec 20142,400
Nov 20142,400
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,580
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,700
Mar 20123,075
Feb 20123,000
Jan 20123,000
Dec 20113,000
Oct 20112,100
Sept 20112,100
Aug 20112,100
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,175
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20101,980
Nov 20101,950
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,115
Aug 20102,115
Jul 20102,352
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,112
Mar 20102,120
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,110
Dec 20092,100
Nov 20092,300
Oct 20092,230
Sept 20092,700
Aug 20092,400
Jul 20092,220
Jun 20092,175
May 20092,220
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,100
Dec 20082,100
Nov 20082,325
Oct 20082,520
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,100
Jul 20082,260
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,860
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,800
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800
Dec 20061,692
Nov 20061,455
Oct 20061,620
Sept 20061,980
Aug 20062,100
Jul 20062,100
Jun 20062,100
May 20062,100
Apr 20062,100
Mar 20062,100
Feb 20062,080
Jan 20061,800
Dec 20051,800
Nov 20052,295
Oct 20052,700
Sept 20052,784
Aug 20052,700
Jul 20052,772
Jun 20052,400
May 20052,320
Apr 20052,145
Mar 20052,100
Feb 20051,800
Jan 20051,800
Dec 20041,800
Nov 20041,680
Oct 20041,730
Sept 20041,500
Aug 20041,500
Jul 20041,350
Jun 20041,200
May 20041,200
Apr 20041,200
Mar 20041,200
Feb 20041,200
Jan 20041,272
Dec 20031,500
Nov 20031,650
Oct 20031,935
Sept 20032,000
Aug 20032,040
Jul 20032,100
Jun 20032,100
May 20032,115
Apr 20032,160
Mar 20032,100
Feb 20032,100
Jan 20032,376

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189