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Sorghum in Kayes Centre

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

255–350

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

227–429

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 227 and 429 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kayes Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 255 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 227 and 429 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 704); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 288–317 301 253–343 357 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 272–329 300 238–375 356 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 255–350 297 210–443 355 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 240–375 298 179–526 345 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 227–429 294 161–704 330 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026300
Feb 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024310
Nov 2024381
Oct 2024438
Sept 2024440
Aug 2024400
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024324
Mar 2024340
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023330
Apr 2023325
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022410
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022410
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022403
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022320
Jan 2022308
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021263
Sept 2021263
Aug 2021254
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020253
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020253
Jun 2020246
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020247
Jan 2020247
Dec 2019252
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019246
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019252
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019267
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018268
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018300
Aug 2018300
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018287
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018288
Dec 2017300
Nov 2017295
Oct 2017296
Sept 2017291
Aug 2017261
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017250
Feb 2017223
Jan 2017212
Dec 2016205
Nov 2016215
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016205
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016205
Jun 2016200
May 2016208
Apr 2016205
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016208
Jan 2016203
Dec 2015240
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015233
Jun 2015200
May 2015203
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014196
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014207
Sept 2014205
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013200
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012280
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012300
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012300
Mar 2012300
Feb 2012300
Jan 2012300
Dec 2011300
Oct 2011238
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011200
Jun 2011200
May 2011200
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011198
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010185
Nov 2010172
Oct 2010194
Sept 2010200
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010200
May 2010200
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010183
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009190
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009200
Apr 2009181
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009182
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008162
Nov 2008178
Oct 2008200
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008180
May 2008175
Apr 2008175
Mar 2008175
Feb 2008175
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007162
Oct 2007175
Sept 2007194
Aug 2007200
Jul 2007200
Jun 2007200
May 2007200
Apr 2007200
Mar 2007200
Feb 2007200
Jan 2007200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-249-65-retail-kg.