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Rice (local) in Kayes Centre

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 4% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

541–683

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

512–719

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

19%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 541 and 683 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 512 and 719 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 19%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kayes Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 541 and 683 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 512 and 719 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 19%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 569–668 631 557–707 626 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 561–680 631 553–745 632 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 541–683 621 518–768 603 19%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 550–708 623 536–848 615 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 512–719 613 443–846 619 –
Price history (227 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026650
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026600
May 2026600
Apr 2026600
Mar 2026600
Feb 2026600
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024638
Sept 2024620
Aug 2024613
Jul 2024650
Jun 2024638
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024600
Jan 2024600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023600
Jun 2023650
May 2023600
Apr 2023600
Mar 2023650
Feb 2023650
Dec 2022600
Nov 2022638
Oct 2022620
Sept 2022625
Aug 2022570
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022505
Mar 2022505
Feb 2022510
Jan 2022508
Dec 2021505
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021515
Sept 2021488
Aug 2021508
Jul 2021503
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021505
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021467
Dec 2020505
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020504
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020507
Jan 2020487
Dec 2019460
Nov 2019505
Oct 2019502
Sept 2019502
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019462
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018452
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018460
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018487
Jan 2018464
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Sept 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017480
Jun 2017525
May 2017525
Apr 2017499
Mar 2017550
Feb 2017550
Jan 2017538
Dec 2016500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016504
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016498
Apr 2016495
Mar 2016484
Feb 2016478
Jan 2016475
Dec 2015475
Nov 2015479
Oct 2015500
Aug 2015471
Jul 2015474
Jun 2015479
May 2015474
Apr 2015475
Mar 2015475
Feb 2015483
Jan 2015475
Dec 2014477
Nov 2014478
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014494
Jul 2014488
Jun 2014499
May 2014496
Apr 2014488
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013544
Oct 2013563
Sept 2013563
Aug 2013559
Jul 2013558
Jun 2013488
May 2013490
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013550
Feb 2013556
Jan 2013559
Nov 2012556
Oct 2012560
Sept 2012553
Aug 2012553
Jul 2012553
Jun 2012550
May 2012475
Apr 2012475
Mar 2012475
Feb 2012492
Jan 2012500
Dec 2011500
Oct 2011485
Sept 2011485
Aug 2011482
Jul 2011475
Jun 2011475
May 2011472
Apr 2011460
Mar 2011460
Feb 2011460
Jan 2011460
Dec 2010460
Nov 2010460
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010459
Jul 2010462
Jun 2010462
May 2010461
Apr 2010455
Mar 2010455
Feb 2010456
Jan 2010455
Dec 2009439
Nov 2009418
Oct 2009410
Sept 2009418
Aug 2009410
Jul 2009421
Jun 2009425
May 2009425
Apr 2009412
Mar 2009425
Feb 2009434
Jan 2009436
Dec 2008447
Nov 2008454
Oct 2008450
Sept 2008445
Aug 2008406
Jul 2008400
Jun 2008400
May 2008400
Apr 2008400
Mar 2008384
Feb 2008397
Jan 2008394
Dec 2007375
Nov 2007375
Oct 2007350
Sept 2007350
Aug 2007350
Jul 2007350
Jun 2007350
May 2007330
Apr 2007325
Mar 2007325
Feb 2007325
Jan 2007306

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-249-71-retail-kg.