Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Kayes Centre

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal July 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

335–499

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

327–567

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In July 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 335 and 499 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 327 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kayes Centre: XOF per KGIn July 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 335 and 499 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 327 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 755); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 362–459 404 325–485 472 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 351–483 400 312–514 472 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 335–499 399 275–508 478 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 329–519 396 276–543 463 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 327–567 394 286–755 440 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026375
Dec 2025350
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jul 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025400
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025450
Feb 2025425
Jan 2025450
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024470
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024450
Jun 2024400
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024365
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023360
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023388
May 2023380
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022475
Jun 2022500
May 2022400
Apr 2022388
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022338
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021303
Nov 2021304
Oct 2021294
Sept 2021293
Aug 2021296
Jul 2021273
Jun 2021275
May 2021300
Apr 2021300
Mar 2021280
Feb 2021265
Jan 2021258
Dec 2020290
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020300
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020274
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020256
May 2020253
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020252
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019252
Nov 2019252
Oct 2019255
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019252
Jun 2019287
May 2019262
Apr 2019257
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019252
Jan 2019300
Dec 2018290
Nov 2018300
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018300
Aug 2018300
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018300
May 2018300
Apr 2018300
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018300
Jan 2018338
Dec 2017339
Nov 2017342
Oct 2017345
Sept 2017327
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017276
Jun 2017265
May 2017259
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017258
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017250
Dec 2016250
Nov 2016256
Oct 2016250
Sept 2016258
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016250
May 2016250
Apr 2016250
Mar 2016249
Feb 2016250
Jan 2016253
Dec 2015250
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015250
Jun 2015256
May 2015250
Apr 2015250
Mar 2015250
Feb 2015248
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014250
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014250
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250
May 2014250
Apr 2014250
Mar 2014250
Feb 2014250
Jan 2014250
Dec 2013250
Nov 2013250
Oct 2013250
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Apr 2013242
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013262
Nov 2012350
Oct 2012342
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012350
Jul 2012350
Jun 2012350
May 2012345
Apr 2012331
Mar 2012331
Feb 2012344
Jan 2012350
Dec 2011350
Oct 2011250
Sept 2011250
Aug 2011244
Jul 2011230
Jun 2011232
May 2011235
Apr 2011225
Mar 2011238
Feb 2011242
Jan 2011245
Dec 2010225
Nov 2010210
Oct 2010244
Sept 2010250
Aug 2010250
Jul 2010250
Jun 2010235
May 2010235
Apr 2010235
Mar 2010235
Feb 2010235
Jan 2010242
Dec 2009250
Nov 2009250
Oct 2009250
Sept 2009250
Aug 2009250
Jul 2009250
Jun 2009225
May 2009200
Apr 2009200
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009200
Jan 2009200
Dec 2008210
Nov 2008225
Oct 2008200
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008200
May 2008200
Apr 2008200
Mar 2008200
Feb 2008200
Jan 2008200
Dec 2007188
Nov 2007200
Oct 2007200
Sept 2007200
Aug 2007200
Jul 2007200
Jun 2007200
May 2007200
Apr 2007200
Mar 2007200
Feb 2007200
Jan 2007200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: July 2026. Series id: mali-249-73-retail-kg.