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Food basket in Kayes Centre

Kayes, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,025–5,984

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,925–6,801

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 4,025 and 5,984 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,925 and 6,801 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kayes Centre: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 4,025 and 5,984 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,925 and 6,801 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 9,060); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,347–5,503 4,842 3,895–5,821
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,214–5,794 4,796 3,742–6,169
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,025–5,984 4,785 3,300–6,092
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,948–6,223 4,749 3,314–6,511
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,925–6,801 4,732 3,435–9,060
Cost history (228 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jul 20264,800
Jun 20264,800
May 20264,800
Apr 20264,800
Mar 20264,800
Feb 20264,800
Jan 20264,500
Dec 20254,200
Oct 20254,800
Sept 20254,800
Aug 20254,800
Jul 20254,800
Jun 20254,800
May 20254,800
Apr 20254,800
Mar 20255,400
Feb 20255,100
Jan 20255,400
Dec 20246,000
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20245,640
Aug 20245,256
Jul 20245,400
Jun 20244,800
May 20244,800
Apr 20244,800
Mar 20244,800
Jan 20244,380
Nov 20234,200
Oct 20234,320
Sept 20234,800
Aug 20234,800
Jul 20234,800
Jun 20234,656
May 20234,560
Apr 20234,800
Mar 20234,800
Feb 20234,800
Dec 20225,700
Nov 20226,000
Oct 20226,000
Sept 20226,000
Aug 20225,160
Jul 20225,700
Jun 20226,000
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,656
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,056
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,636
Nov 20213,648
Oct 20213,528
Sept 20213,516
Aug 20213,552
Jul 20213,276
Jun 20213,300
May 20213,600
Apr 20213,600
Mar 20213,360
Feb 20213,180
Jan 20213,096
Dec 20203,480
Nov 20203,600
Oct 20203,600
Sept 20203,600
Aug 20203,288
Jul 20203,000
Jun 20203,072
May 20203,036
Apr 20203,000
Mar 20203,000
Feb 20203,024
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20193,024
Nov 20193,030
Oct 20193,060
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,024
Jun 20193,444
May 20193,144
Apr 20193,084
Mar 20193,000
Feb 20193,024
Jan 20193,600
Dec 20183,480
Nov 20183,600
Oct 20183,600
Sept 20183,600
Aug 20183,600
Jul 20183,600
Jun 20183,600
May 20183,600
Apr 20183,600
Mar 20183,600
Feb 20183,600
Jan 20184,056
Dec 20174,068
Nov 20174,104
Oct 20174,140
Sept 20173,924
Aug 20173,600
Jul 20173,312
Jun 20173,180
May 20173,108
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20173,096
Feb 20173,000
Jan 20173,000
Dec 20163,000
Nov 20163,072
Oct 20163,000
Sept 20163,096
Aug 20163,000
Jul 20163,000
Jun 20163,000
May 20163,000
Apr 20163,000
Mar 20162,988
Feb 20163,000
Jan 20163,036
Dec 20153,000
Nov 20153,000
Oct 20153,000
Aug 20153,000
Jul 20153,000
Jun 20153,072
May 20153,000
Apr 20153,000
Mar 20153,000
Feb 20152,976
Jan 20153,000
Dec 20143,000
Nov 20143,000
Oct 20143,000
Sept 20143,000
Aug 20143,000
Jul 20143,000
Jun 20143,000
May 20143,000
Apr 20143,000
Mar 20143,000
Feb 20143,000
Jan 20143,000
Dec 20133,000
Nov 20133,000
Oct 20133,000
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Apr 20132,904
Mar 20133,000
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20133,150
Nov 20124,200
Oct 20124,104
Sept 20124,200
Aug 20124,200
Jul 20124,200
Jun 20124,200
May 20124,140
Apr 20123,972
Mar 20123,975
Feb 20124,125
Jan 20124,200
Dec 20114,200
Oct 20113,000
Sept 20113,000
Aug 20112,928
Jul 20112,760
Jun 20112,790
May 20112,820
Apr 20112,700
Mar 20112,850
Feb 20112,910
Jan 20112,940
Dec 20102,700
Nov 20102,520
Oct 20102,925
Sept 20103,000
Aug 20103,000
Jul 20103,000
Jun 20102,820
May 20102,820
Apr 20102,820
Mar 20102,820
Feb 20102,820
Jan 20102,910
Dec 20093,000
Nov 20093,000
Oct 20093,000
Sept 20093,000
Aug 20093,000
Jul 20093,000
Jun 20092,700
May 20092,400
Apr 20092,400
Mar 20092,400
Feb 20092,400
Jan 20092,400
Dec 20082,520
Nov 20082,700
Oct 20082,400
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,400
May 20082,400
Apr 20082,400
Mar 20082,400
Feb 20082,400
Jan 20082,400
Dec 20072,250
Nov 20072,400
Oct 20072,400
Sept 20072,400
Aug 20072,400
Jul 20072,400
Jun 20072,400
May 20072,400
Apr 20072,400
Mar 20072,400
Feb 20072,400
Jan 20072,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189