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Maize in Koulikoro Ba

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

178–242

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

159–266

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Koulikoro Ba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 203–238 220 183–248 287 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 189–243 214 187–270 276 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 178–242 205 178–258 261 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 166–259 201 140–326 251 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 159–266 197 126–333 242 –
Price history (271 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026222
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025212
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024278
Jun 2024251
May 2024231
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023240
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023253
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022255
Oct 2022292
Sept 2022331
Aug 2022353
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022360
May 2022360
Apr 2022363
Mar 2022284
Feb 2022260
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021245
Nov 2021229
Oct 2021231
Sept 2021223
Aug 2021222
Jul 2021215
Jun 2021210
May 2021215
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021220
Feb 2021178
Jan 2021163
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020190
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020165
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018175
Oct 2018209
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018231
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018221
Apr 2018209
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018187
Jan 2018172
Dec 2017176
Nov 2017178
Oct 2017187
Sept 2017196
Aug 2017420Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017170
Apr 2017157
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017141
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016165
Oct 2016168
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016168
May 2016158
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016158
Feb 2016160
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015170
Oct 2015186
Aug 2015185
Jul 2015178
Jun 2015176
May 2015160
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015154
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014171
Oct 2014171
Sept 2014163
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013194
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013188
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012233
Sept 2012255
Aug 2012263
Jul 2012290
Jun 2012269
May 2012275
Apr 2012255
Mar 2012239
Feb 2012240
Jan 2012225
Dec 2011225
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011195
Aug 2011192
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010170
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010175
Jun 2010175
Jan 2010172
Dec 2009168
Nov 2009173
Oct 2009181
Sept 2009187
Aug 2009184
Jul 2009180
Jun 2009175
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008164
Nov 2008162
Oct 2008165
Aug 2008190
Jul 2008189
Jun 2008161
May 2008162
Apr 2008140
Mar 2008149
Feb 2008140
Jan 2008128
Dec 2007143
Nov 2007147
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007139
Aug 2007132
Jul 2007130
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007125
Mar 2007125
Feb 2007121
Jan 2007110
Dec 2006118
Nov 2006126
Oct 2006146
Sept 2006150
Aug 2006151
Jul 2006150
Jun 2006150
May 2006148
Apr 2006147
Mar 2006147
Feb 2006145
Jan 2006146
Dec 2005150
Nov 2005142
Oct 2005155
Sept 2005208
Aug 2005227
Jul 2005233
Jun 2005202
May 2005184
Apr 2005167
Mar 2005161
Feb 2005131
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004120
Nov 2004120
Oct 2004109
Sept 2004100
Aug 2004100
Jul 2004100
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004100
Feb 2004100
Jan 2004100
Dec 2003100
Nov 2003120
Oct 2003150
Sept 2003150
Aug 2003151
Jul 2003163
Jun 2003161
May 2003164
Apr 2003160
Mar 2003159
Feb 2003156
Jan 2003162

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-251-51-retail-kg.