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Rice (imported) in Koulikoro Ba

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

407–491

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

391–530

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 407 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 391 and 530 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koulikoro Ba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 407 and 491 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 391 and 530 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 424–471 449 403–497 502 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 415–477 451 386–509 506 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 407–491 449 340–546 511 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 398–517 446 345–664 498 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 391–530 442 330–685 502 –
Price history (226 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026410
Dec 2025410
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025450
Aug 2025470
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025550
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024518
Apr 2024531
Mar 2024515
Jan 2024489
Nov 2023485
Oct 2023485
Sept 2023464
Aug 2023463
Jul 2023470
Jun 2023469
May 2023478
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023475
Feb 2023475
Dec 2022485
Nov 2022476
Oct 2022469
Sept 2022453
Aug 2022424
Jul 2022409
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022390
Feb 2022390
Jan 2022387
Dec 2021375
Nov 2021375
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021368
Jan 2021365
Dec 2020365
Nov 2020365
Oct 2020365
Sept 2020366
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020363
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019356
Jan 2019350
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018350
Aug 2018368
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017375
Apr 2017355
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015350
Apr 2015363
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014354
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013350
Mar 2013350
Feb 2013350
Jan 2013350
Nov 2012350
Oct 2012350
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012343
Jul 2012346
Jun 2012369
May 2012375
Apr 2012375
Mar 2012375
Feb 2012375
Jan 2012375
Dec 2011375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011375
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011350
Apr 2011362
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011333
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010323
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010324
May 2010300
Apr 2010320
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010312
Dec 2009300
Nov 2009310
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009317
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009300
May 2009310
Apr 2009330
Mar 2009367
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008360
Oct 2008375
Sept 2008375
Aug 2008380
Jul 2008375
Jun 2008375
May 2008338
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008323
Feb 2008303
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007278
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-251-64-retail-kg.