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Sorghum in Koulikoro Ba

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–271

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

152–283

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Koulikoro Ba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 271 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–248 225 188–291 297 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 186–262 224 145–320 299 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–271 212 140–327 289 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 156–271 202 121–314 267 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 152–283 195 117–332 254 –
Price history (276 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026217
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025231
Jul 2025242
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024290
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024380
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024358
Jul 2024349
Jun 2024297
May 2024266
Apr 2024265
Mar 2024270
Jan 2024248
Nov 2023273
Oct 2023278
Sept 2023280
Aug 2023275
Jul 2023260
Jun 2023250
May 2023253
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022253
Nov 2022318
Oct 2022398
Sept 2022414
Aug 2022404
Jul 2022397
Jun 2022385
May 2022370
Apr 2022365
Mar 2022288
Feb 2022256
Jan 2022249
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021220
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021192
Jul 2021180
Jun 2021180
May 2021185
Apr 2021192
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021174
Dec 2020191
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020188
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019181
Jun 2019185
May 2019181
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018195
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018242
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018247
Jun 2018241
May 2018235
Apr 2018220
Mar 2018211
Feb 2018202
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017194
Nov 2017211
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017215
Aug 2017195
Jul 2017186
Jun 2017180
May 2017174
Apr 2017161
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017147
Dec 2016151
Nov 2016170
Oct 2016174
Sept 2016173
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016178
Jun 2016171
May 2016164
Apr 2016160
Mar 2016165
Feb 2016163
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015143
Nov 2015170
Oct 2015199
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015195
Jun 2015185
May 2015168
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014143
Nov 2014150
Oct 2014172
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014185
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014173
Jan 2014150
Dec 2013190
Nov 2013190
Oct 2013198
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013220
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013175
Feb 2013175
Jan 2013181
Nov 2012213
Oct 2012272
Sept 2012292
Aug 2012300
Jul 2012295
Jun 2012275
May 2012275
Apr 2012277
Mar 2012242
Feb 2012230
Jan 2012207
Dec 2011225
Oct 2011180
Sept 2011155
Aug 2011164
Jul 2011164
Jun 2011155
May 2011148
Apr 2011145
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011137
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010138
Oct 2010168
Sept 2010181
Aug 2010187
Jul 2010175
Jun 2010175
May 2010165
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010172
Dec 2009159
Nov 2009173
Oct 2009194
Sept 2009197
Aug 2009192
Jul 2009184
Jun 2009175
May 2009155
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009168
Feb 2009155
Jan 2009126
Dec 2008102
Nov 2008127
Oct 2008174
Sept 2008178
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008183
Jun 2008156
May 2008140
Apr 2008135
Mar 2008139
Feb 2008132
Jan 2008125
Dec 2007113
Nov 2007132
Oct 2007140
Sept 2007140
Aug 2007140
Jul 2007139
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007121
Mar 2007123
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007104
Dec 200698.2
Nov 2006113
Oct 2006135
Sept 2006149
Aug 2006151
Jul 2006143
Jun 2006141
May 2006129
Apr 2006129
Mar 2006132
Feb 2006125
Jan 2006114
Dec 2005110
Nov 2005127
Oct 2005180
Sept 2005245
Aug 2005230
Jul 2005233
Jun 2005208
May 2005191
Apr 2005175
Mar 2005174
Feb 2005136
Jan 2005115
Dec 2004118
Nov 2004126
Oct 2004120
Sept 200492.6
Aug 200497.4
Jul 200498
Jun 200498.9
May 200494.7
Apr 200495.6
Feb 200492.7
Jan 200492.9
Dec 200392.4
Nov 2003109
Oct 2003130
Sept 2003172
Aug 2003174
Jul 2003179
Jun 2003177
May 2003174
Apr 2003166
Mar 2003157
Feb 2003157
Jan 2003164

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-251-65-retail-kg.