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Rice (local) in Koulikoro Ba

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

458–523

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

438–545

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 458 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 438 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koulikoro Ba: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 458 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 438 and 545 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 479–528 498 478–538 561 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 474–533 499 473–547 554 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 458–523 496 448–531 532 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 450–541 493 430–601 524 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 438–545 488 398–610 532 –
Price history (211 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025538
Aug 2025550
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024555
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024550
Mar 2024495
Jan 2024490
Nov 2023484
Oct 2023493
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023506
May 2023551
Apr 2023520
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022470
Nov 2022486
Oct 2022518
Sept 2022518
Aug 2022516
Jul 2022465
Jun 2022444
May 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022423
Dec 2021430
Nov 2021434
Oct 2021436
Sept 2021438
Aug 2021424
Jul 2021414
Jun 2021415
May 2021383
Apr 2021375
Feb 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020385
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019388
Dec 2018385
Nov 2018388
Oct 2018415
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018428
Jul 2018425
Jun 2018425
May 2018418
Apr 2018400
Feb 2018406
Jan 2018409
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017405
Sept 2017425
Aug 2017420
Jul 2017403
Jun 2017394
May 2017400
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016381
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016388
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016363
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015404
Aug 2015382
Jul 2015375
Jun 2015375
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015350
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014367
Aug 2014354
Jul 2014347
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Apr 2014350
Mar 2014350
Feb 2014350
Jan 2014375
Dec 2013375
Nov 2013375
Oct 2013375
Sept 2013375
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013375
Jun 2013375
May 2013375
Apr 2013375
Feb 2013375
Jan 2013375
Nov 2012375
Oct 2012400
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012413
Jul 2012430
Jun 2012450
May 2012450
Feb 2012400
Jan 2012400
Dec 2011400
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011386
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011338
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010344
Nov 2010350
Oct 2010350
Sept 2010350
Aug 2010350
Jul 2010350
Jun 2010331
May 2010325
Apr 2010350
Mar 2010350
Feb 2010350
Jan 2010315
Dec 2009350
Nov 2009350
Oct 2009360
Sept 2009388
Aug 2009375
Jul 2009375
Jun 2009377
May 2009350
Mar 2009350
Feb 2009350
Jan 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008340
Oct 2008425
Sept 2008394
Aug 2008375
Jul 2008378
Jun 2008374
May 2008350
Mar 2008316
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008283
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007278
Oct 2007282
Sept 2007287
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007300
May 2007288
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007265
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-251-71-retail-kg.