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Food basket in Koulikoro Ba

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,108–3,465

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,878–4,221

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,108 and 3,465 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,878 and 4,221 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koulikoro Ba: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,400 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,108 and 3,465 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,878 and 4,221 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,571); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,268–3,190 2,483 2,199–3,542
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,199–3,412 2,492 2,192–4,032
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,108–3,465 2,449 1,999–3,737
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,995–4,082 2,426 1,888–7,413
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,878–4,221 2,368 1,671–7,571
Cost history (276 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,400
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20262,700
Dec 20252,700
Oct 20252,700
Sept 20252,856
Aug 20253,204
Jul 20253,465
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,600
Apr 20253,600
Mar 20253,300
Feb 20253,600
Jan 20253,300
Dec 20244,080
Nov 20244,200
Oct 20244,680
Sept 20244,356
Aug 20244,380
Jul 20244,176
Jun 20243,648
May 20243,420
Apr 20243,420
Mar 20243,420
Jan 20243,360
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,648
Sept 20233,696
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,588
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,636
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20224,080
Nov 20224,776
Oct 20225,352
Sept 20225,148
Aug 20224,956
Jul 20224,824
Jun 20224,920
May 20224,560
Apr 20224,512
Mar 20223,540
Feb 20223,156
Jan 20223,000
Dec 20212,988
Nov 20212,940
Oct 20212,400
Sept 20212,520
Aug 20212,424
Jul 20212,280
Jun 20212,280
May 20212,340
Apr 20212,355
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,316
Jan 20212,244
Dec 20202,592
Nov 20202,700
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,460
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,280
Feb 20192,316
Jan 20192,652
Dec 20182,508
Nov 20182,652
Oct 20182,904
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20182,964
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20182,820
Mar 20182,700
Feb 20182,628
Jan 20182,400
Dec 20172,724
Nov 20172,976
Oct 20173,024
Sept 20172,916
Aug 20172,556
Jul 20172,534
Jun 20172,508
May 20172,352
Apr 20172,088
Mar 20172,076
Feb 20172,100
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,196
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20162,292
Sept 20162,328
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,160
May 20162,100
Apr 20162,076
Mar 20162,124
Feb 20162,100
Jan 20162,100
Dec 20152,208
Nov 20152,232
Oct 20152,484
Aug 20152,508
Jul 20152,520
Jun 20152,460
May 20151,980
Apr 20151,800
Mar 20151,896
Feb 20152,100
Jan 20152,196
Dec 20142,376
Nov 20142,340
Oct 20142,424
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,479
Jul 20142,616
Jun 20142,700
May 20142,700
Apr 20142,700
Mar 20142,700
Feb 20142,700
Jan 20142,700
Dec 20132,580
Nov 20132,580
Oct 20132,700
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,700
Jul 20132,700
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,700
Feb 20132,700
Jan 20132,700
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,804
Sept 20123,600
Aug 20123,600
Jul 20123,600
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,384
Mar 20122,910
Feb 20122,760
Jan 20122,484
Dec 20112,700
Oct 20112,148
Sept 20111,950
Aug 20111,980
Jul 20111,980
Jun 20111,860
May 20111,776
Apr 20111,740
Mar 20111,800
Feb 20111,800
Jan 20111,836
Dec 20101,900
Nov 20101,890
Oct 20102,064
Sept 20102,235
Aug 20102,244
Jul 20102,100
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,040
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,200
Dec 20092,190
Nov 20092,208
Oct 20092,400
Sept 20092,400
Aug 20092,366
Jul 20092,214
Jun 20092,100
May 20091,980
Apr 20091,974
Mar 20092,057
Feb 20091,905
Jan 20091,779
Dec 20081,815
Nov 20082,052
Oct 20082,139
Sept 20082,223
Aug 20082,160
Jul 20082,229
Jun 20081,932
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,680
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,755
Jan 20081,700
Dec 20071,710
Nov 20071,791
Oct 20071,791
Sept 20071,795
Aug 20071,785
Jul 20071,704
Jun 20071,530
May 20071,509
Apr 20071,552
Mar 20071,548
Feb 20071,560
Jan 20071,512
Dec 20061,525
Nov 20061,701
Oct 20061,731
Sept 20061,844
Aug 20061,869
Jul 20061,793
Jun 20061,800
May 20061,784
Apr 20061,770
Mar 20061,698
Feb 20061,530
Jan 20061,497
Dec 20051,461
Nov 20051,610
Oct 20052,412
Sept 20052,992
Aug 20052,715
Jul 20052,797
Jun 20052,480
May 20052,315
Apr 20052,105
Mar 20052,095
Feb 20051,668
Jan 20051,500
Dec 20041,505
Nov 20041,586
Oct 20041,522
Sept 20041,124
Aug 20041,168
Jul 20041,154
Jun 20041,179
May 20041,168
Apr 20041,170
Feb 20041,196
Jan 20041,191
Dec 20031,160
Nov 20031,398
Oct 20032,070
Sept 20032,073
Aug 20032,084
Jul 20032,142
Jun 20032,119
May 20032,076
Apr 20031,983
Mar 20031,864
Feb 20031,872
Jan 20031,926

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189