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Maize in Mopti Digue

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–262

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

144–300

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 144 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Mopti Digue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 144 and 300 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 594); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 178–224 198 157–256 279 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 161–234 194 137–329 270 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–262 185 113–433 257 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 141–289 183 111–594 254 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 144–300 180 126–533 250 –
Price history (274 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025230
Oct 2025205
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025262
Feb 2025262
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024290
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024325
Jul 2024305
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024248
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023244
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023269
Apr 2023275
Mar 2023275
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022281
Sept 2022345
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022345
May 2022350
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021230
Aug 2021219
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021188
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020181
Oct 2020172
Sept 2020160
Aug 2020153
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019173
May 2019171
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019178
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018179
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018181
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017193
Aug 2017337
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015191
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015167
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015150
Dec 2014150
Nov 2014158
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014185
Jun 2014175
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013175
Nov 2013175
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013175
Jul 2013175
Jun 2013175
May 2013175
Apr 2013186
Mar 2013190
Feb 2013175
Jan 2013175
Nov 2012175
Oct 2012213
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012245
Jun 2012246
May 2012250
Apr 2012266
Mar 2012252
Feb 2012226
Jan 2012225
Dec 2011225
Oct 2011184
Sept 2011162
Aug 2011162
Jul 2011153
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011150
Dec 2010148
Nov 2010135
Oct 2010143
Sept 2010158
Aug 2010160
Jul 2010155
Jun 2010162
May 2010164
Apr 2010161
Mar 2010161
Feb 2010163
Jan 2010165
Dec 2009152
Nov 2009168
Oct 2009176
Sept 2009186
Aug 2009188
Jul 2009181
Jun 2009175
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009156
Dec 2008140
Nov 2008149
Oct 2008162
Sept 2008175
Aug 2008178
Jul 2008178
Jun 2008159
May 2008146
Apr 2008135
Mar 2008138
Feb 2008140
Jan 2008124
Dec 2007122
Nov 2007118
Oct 2007117
Sept 2007114
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007110
Jun 2007110
May 2007110
Apr 2007110
Mar 2007110
Feb 2007110
Jan 2007101
Dec 2006106
Nov 2006109
Oct 2006114
Sept 2006127
Aug 2006130
Jul 2006130
Jun 2006131
May 2006131
Apr 2006131
Mar 2006131
Feb 2006127
Jan 2006125
Dec 2005125
Nov 2005125
Oct 2005138
Sept 2005229
Aug 2005214
Jul 2005220
Jun 2005248
Apr 2005150
Mar 2005150
Feb 2005134
Jan 2005115
Dec 2004109
Nov 2004109
Oct 2004110
Sept 200498.8
Aug 200497.5
Jul 200480
Jun 200480
May 200480
Apr 200479
Mar 200475.5
Feb 200477
Jan 200478.7
Dec 200378.2
Nov 200391.7
Oct 2003107
Sept 2003123
Aug 2003130
Jul 2003148
Jun 2003150
May 2003152
Apr 2003154
Mar 2003159
Feb 2003161
Jan 2003172

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-252-51-retail-kg.