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Sorghum in Mopti Digue

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

171–248

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

154–267

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 267 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Mopti Digue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 248 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 267 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 190–223 201 170–244 283 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 166–229 198 139–261 259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 171–248 199 152–340 278 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 154–270 195 122–429 262 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 154–267 193 127–344 255 –
Price history (255 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Oct 2025205
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025265
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025306
Jan 2025260
Nov 2024313
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024344
Jun 2024298
May 2024260
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023269
Apr 2023275
Mar 2023275
Dec 2022288
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022355
May 2022350
Apr 2022330
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021240
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020176
Oct 2020183
Sept 2020188
Aug 2020190
Jul 2020184
Jun 2020175
May 2020171
Apr 2020170
Mar 2020170
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020165
Dec 2019175
Sept 2019193
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019198
May 2019196
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019221
Dec 2018197
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018228
Feb 2018243
Jan 2018225
Dec 2017213
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017215
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017188
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015187
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015194
May 2015175
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015188
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014183
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013180
Nov 2012238
Oct 2012250
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012275
Jun 2012278
May 2012278
Apr 2012286
Mar 2012252
Feb 2012226
Jan 2012225
Oct 2011187
Sept 2011160
Aug 2011155
Jul 2011150
Jun 2011150
May 2011150
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Feb 2011150
Jan 2011149
Dec 2010146
Nov 2010137
Oct 2010146
Sept 2010158
Aug 2010161
Jul 2010160
Jun 2010162
May 2010160
Apr 2010161
Mar 2010161
Feb 2010161
Jan 2010157
Dec 2009150
Nov 2009166
Oct 2009177
Sept 2009190
Aug 2009190
Jul 2009181
Jun 2009175
May 2009164
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009160
Feb 2009174
Jan 2009158
Dec 2008140
Oct 2008167
Sept 2008175
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008175
Jun 2008159
May 2008146
Apr 2008138
Mar 2008140
Feb 2008140
Jan 2008130
Dec 2007125
Oct 2007124
Sept 2007124
Aug 2007125
Jul 2007124
Jun 2007117
May 2007120
Apr 2007120
Mar 2007121
Feb 2007125
Jan 2007111
Dec 2006112
Nov 2006117
Oct 2006132
Sept 2006144
Aug 2006145
Jul 2006146
Jun 2006144
May 2006144
Apr 2006146
Mar 2006144
Feb 2006141
Jan 2006136
Dec 2005142
Oct 2005174
Sept 2005229
Aug 2005221
Jul 2005220
Jun 2005206
Apr 2005163
Mar 2005157
Feb 2005142
Jan 2005128
Dec 2004134
Oct 2004113
Sept 200495.3
Aug 200498.6
Jul 200489.7
Jun 200486.9
May 200485.7
Apr 200486
Mar 200485.9
Feb 200488.9
Jan 200490.4
Dec 200393
Oct 2003136
Sept 2003152
Aug 2003161
Jul 2003169
Jun 2003178
May 2003178
Apr 2003180
Mar 2003180
Feb 2003179
Jan 2003181

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-252-65-retail-kg.