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Rice (local) in Mopti Digue

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

345–454

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

331–459

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 345 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 331 and 459 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Mopti Digue: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 345 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 331 and 459 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 358–428 375 356–448 499 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 354–440 377 351–452 498 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 345–454 376 311–501 481 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 343–467 376 306–526 484 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 331–459 370 297–506 475 –
Price history (222 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026375
Jul 2026375
Jun 2026375
May 2026388
Apr 2026393
Mar 2026412
Feb 2026412
Jan 2026425
Dec 2025496
Oct 2025452
Sept 2025475
Aug 2025475
Jun 2025475
May 2025475
Apr 2025475
Mar 2025496
Feb 2025492
Jan 2025490
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024506
Oct 2024581
Sept 2024573
Aug 2024463
Jul 2024454
Jun 2024434
May 2024433
Apr 2024433
Mar 2024435
Jan 2024436
Nov 2023443
Oct 2023449
Sept 2023449
Aug 2023448
Jul 2023448
Jun 2023448
May 2023448
Apr 2023446
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022448
Oct 2022459
Sept 2022458
Aug 2022441
Jul 2022399
Jun 2022390
May 2022385
Apr 2022385
Mar 2022373
Feb 2022371
Jan 2022371
Dec 2021385
Nov 2021378
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021355
Aug 2021350
Jul 2021338
Jun 2021333
May 2021334
Apr 2021328
Mar 2021322
Feb 2021323
Dec 2020328
Nov 2020331
Oct 2020334
Sept 2020346
Aug 2020329
Jul 2020307
Jun 2020309
May 2020302
Apr 2020303
Mar 2020301
Feb 2020307
Jan 2020314
Dec 2019319
Nov 2019321
Oct 2019325
Sept 2019337
Aug 2019337
Jul 2019337
Jun 2019337
May 2019337
Apr 2019331
Mar 2019321
Feb 2019312
Jan 2019369
Dec 2018360
Nov 2018370
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018396
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018381
Jun 2018380
May 2018374
Apr 2018356
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018356
Dec 2017362
Nov 2017362
Oct 2017362
Sept 2017356
Aug 2017337
Jul 2017338
Jun 2017338
May 2017338
Apr 2017334
Mar 2017325
Feb 2017325
Jan 2017328
Dec 2016338
Nov 2016344
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016346
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016328
Feb 2016327
Jan 2016329
Dec 2015341
Nov 2015356
Oct 2015383
May 2015350
Apr 2015338
Mar 2015323
Feb 2015320
Jan 2015336
Dec 2014346
Nov 2014354
Oct 2014366
Sept 2014337
Aug 2014323
Jul 2014318
Jun 2014319
May 2014310
Apr 2014308
Mar 2014313
Feb 2014313
Jan 2014313
Dec 2013300
Nov 2013300
Oct 2013303
Sept 2013313
Aug 2013318
Jul 2013300
Jun 2013325
May 2013325
Apr 2013325
Mar 2013325
Feb 2013325
Jan 2013310
Nov 2012363
Oct 2012388
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012413
Jun 2012438
May 2012438
Apr 2012419
Mar 2012398
Feb 2012388
Jan 2012388
Dec 2011400
Oct 2011397
Sept 2011352
Aug 2011342
Jul 2011338
Jun 2011325
May 2011305
Apr 2011306
Mar 2011286
Feb 2011289
Jan 2011287
Dec 2010310
Nov 2010323
Oct 2010323
Sept 2010320
Aug 2010320
Jul 2010315
Jun 2010321
May 2010340
Apr 2010335
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010326
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009313
Nov 2009324
Oct 2009316
Sept 2009337
Aug 2009338
Jul 2009344
Jun 2009347
May 2009337
Apr 2009329
Mar 2009325
Feb 2009327
Jan 2009321
Dec 2008323
Nov 2008333
Oct 2008388
Sept 2008398
Aug 2008392
Jul 2008368
Jun 2008344
May 2008325
Apr 2008311
Mar 2008286
Feb 2008272
Jan 2008269
Dec 2007268
Nov 2007273
Oct 2007274
Sept 2007268
Aug 2007280
Jul 2007279
Jun 2007278
May 2007273
Apr 2007257
Mar 2007246
Feb 2007251
Jan 2007242

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-252-71-retail-kg.