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Food basket in Mopti Digue

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,496–3,961

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,386–4,028

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,496 and 3,961 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,386 and 4,028 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Mopti Digue: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,496 and 3,961 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,386 and 4,028 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,803–3,512 3,007 2,311–3,837
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,554–3,744 2,994 2,182–4,081
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,496–3,961 2,978 2,341–5,059
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,288–4,102 2,930 1,932–5,202
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,386–4,028 2,879 2,245–4,518
Cost history (275 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20262,850
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,300
Oct 20253,000
Sept 20253,300
Aug 20253,528
Jul 20253,600
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,900
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,476
Feb 20254,248
Jan 20254,020
Dec 20243,900
Nov 20244,356
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,788
Jun 20244,128
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,504
Jan 20243,000
Nov 20233,000
Oct 20233,228
Sept 20233,300
Aug 20233,420
Jul 20233,528
Jun 20233,300
May 20233,528
Apr 20233,600
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20224,356
Oct 20224,956
Sept 20224,992
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,620
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,560
Mar 20223,960
Feb 20223,828
Jan 20223,372
Dec 20213,300
Nov 20213,072
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,676
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,556
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,100
Apr 20202,100
Mar 20202,100
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,100
Nov 20192,100
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,400
Jan 20192,652
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,655
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20182,844
Dec 20172,760
Nov 20172,988
Oct 20173,204
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,072
Jul 20172,880
Jun 20172,772
May 20172,700
Apr 20172,628
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,364
Feb 20162,388
Jan 20162,364
Dec 20152,388
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,220
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,400
Jan 20152,340
Dec 20142,400
Nov 20142,400
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,475
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,472
May 20142,400
Apr 20142,400
Mar 20142,400
Feb 20142,400
Jan 20142,400
Dec 20132,400
Nov 20132,604
Oct 20132,400
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,700
Jul 20132,550
Jun 20132,400
May 20132,400
Apr 20132,400
Mar 20132,400
Feb 20132,400
Jan 20132,400
Nov 20123,180
Oct 20123,276
Sept 20123,252
Aug 20123,492
Jul 20123,480
Jun 20123,432
May 20123,336
Apr 20123,480
Mar 20123,024
Feb 20122,715
Jan 20122,700
Dec 20112,700
Oct 20112,160
Sept 20111,896
Aug 20111,960
Jul 20111,840
Jun 20111,800
May 20111,800
Apr 20111,800
Mar 20111,803
Feb 20111,804
Jan 20111,800
Dec 20101,776
Nov 20101,736
Oct 20101,839
Sept 20102,051
Aug 20102,190
Jul 20102,138
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,100
Dec 20092,017
Nov 20092,037
Oct 20092,179
Sept 20092,475
Aug 20092,412
Jul 20092,297
Jun 20092,175
May 20092,130
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,100
Feb 20092,097
Jan 20091,939
Dec 20081,800
Nov 20081,956
Oct 20082,095
Sept 20082,160
Aug 20082,159
Jul 20082,218
Jun 20081,920
May 20081,824
Apr 20081,680
Mar 20081,680
Feb 20081,680
Jan 20081,572
Dec 20071,500
Nov 20071,500
Oct 20071,500
Sept 20071,500
Aug 20071,500
Jul 20071,500
Jun 20071,500
May 20071,500
Apr 20071,500
Mar 20071,500
Feb 20071,500
Jan 20071,410
Dec 20061,446
Nov 20061,520
Oct 20061,686
Sept 20061,953
Aug 20061,956
Jul 20061,979
Jun 20061,959
May 20061,990
Apr 20061,997
Mar 20061,966
Feb 20061,855
Jan 20061,738
Dec 20051,790
Nov 20052,078
Oct 20052,322
Sept 20052,779
Aug 20052,667
Jul 20052,644
Jun 20052,466
Apr 20052,045
Mar 20051,955
Feb 20051,789
Jan 20051,602
Dec 20041,565
Nov 20041,536
Oct 20041,513
Sept 20041,167
Aug 20041,185
Jul 20041,200
Jun 20041,184
May 20041,115
Apr 20041,080
Mar 20041,051
Feb 20041,134
Jan 20041,169
Dec 20031,267
Nov 20031,497
Oct 20031,800
Sept 20031,927
Aug 20032,052
Jul 20032,131
Jun 20032,153
May 20032,166
Apr 20032,181
Mar 20032,182
Feb 20032,172
Jan 20032,165

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189