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Maize in Niarela

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

186–288

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

168–332

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Niarela: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 186 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 332 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 510); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 211–269 244 169–285 327 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 197–280 238 162–327 319 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 186–288 231 158–376 302 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 173–298 224 133–390 293 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 168–332 220 127–510 281 –
Price history (275 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025240
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025263
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024294
May 2024275
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024263
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023280
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023288
Jun 2023250
May 2023280
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022356
May 2022335
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022295
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021219
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021175
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020175
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020165
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019155
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019193
Aug 2019181
Jul 2019170
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Apr 2019175
Mar 2019175
Feb 2019181
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018215
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018205
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017195
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017188
May 2017195
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016194
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016195
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015175
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015175
May 2015175
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015163
Jan 2015175
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014194
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014175
Jun 2014181
May 2014200
Apr 2014194
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014181
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013181
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013195
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012238
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012250
Jun 2012256
May 2012260
Apr 2012250
Mar 2012250
Feb 2012231
Jan 2012260
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011212
Aug 2011200
Jul 2011181
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011174
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010165
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010194
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010195
May 2010181
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010181
Dec 2009180
Nov 2009188
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009194
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009190
Feb 2009188
Jan 2009181
Dec 2008160
Nov 2008156
Oct 2008194
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008175
May 2008169
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007128
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007144
Jan 2007125
Dec 2006125
Nov 2006125
Oct 2006140
Sept 2006150
Aug 2006150
Jul 2006150
Jun 2006150
May 2006150
Apr 2006150
Mar 2006150
Feb 2006150
Jan 2006125
Dec 2005125
Nov 2005135
Oct 2005169
Sept 2005215
Aug 2005231
Jul 2005225
Jun 2005212
May 2005195
Apr 2005172
Mar 2005150
Feb 2005138
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004125
Nov 2004130
Oct 2004135
Sept 2004102
Aug 2004101
Jul 2004100
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004100
Mar 2004100
Feb 2004100
Jan 2004100
Dec 2003100
Nov 2003100
Oct 2003125
Sept 2003131
Aug 2003144
Jul 2003160
Jun 2003150
May 2003167
Apr 2003155
Mar 2003150
Feb 2003150
Jan 2003156

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-253-51-retail-kg.