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Rice (imported) in Niarela

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

420–475

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

406–524

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 420 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 406 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Niarela: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 420 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 406 and 524 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 677); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 434–469 450 416–491 500 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 429–472 451 390–484 500 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 420–475 450 354–488 499 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 413–492 450 347–557 500 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 406–524 447 357–677 503 –
Price history (224 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022413
Aug 2022395
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Feb 2022375
Dec 2021375
Nov 2021375
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021369
Jun 2021370
May 2021350
Apr 2021362
Feb 2021350
Dec 2020355
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020350
May 2020363
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019350
Nov 2019350
Oct 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019355
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019350
Dec 2018356
Nov 2018350
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018356
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018393
May 2018375
Jan 2018370
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017362
Oct 2017355
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017369
May 2017365
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016355
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015356
Oct 2015363
May 2015350
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014350
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014350
Jun 2014350
May 2014350
Dec 2013350
Nov 2013350
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013350
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013350
Jan 2013350
Nov 2012350
Oct 2012350
Sept 2012350
Aug 2012350
Jul 2012348
Jun 2012354
May 2012375
Apr 2012375
Mar 2012375
Nov 2011375
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011375
Aug 2011365
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011369
May 2011350
Apr 2011356
Jan 2011325
Dec 2010325
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010325
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010320
May 2010300
Apr 2010300
Mar 2010300
Feb 2010300
Jan 2010300
Dec 2009305
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009300
Sept 2009300
Aug 2009300
Jul 2009300
Jun 2009300
May 2009300
Apr 2009300
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009369
Dec 2008375
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008381
Sept 2008375
Aug 2008400
Jul 2008385
Jun 2008375
May 2008338
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007275
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Dec 2006275
Nov 2006275
Oct 2006275
Sept 2006285
Aug 2006284
Jul 2006292
Jun 2006295
May 2006278
Mar 2006275
Jan 2006275
Dec 2005275
Nov 2005275
Oct 2005275
Sept 2005290
Aug 2005288
Jul 2005275
Jun 2005275
May 2005281
Apr 2005275
Mar 2005275
Feb 2005275
Jan 2005275
Dec 2004275
Nov 2004271
Oct 2004262
Sept 2004260
Aug 2004265
Jul 2004275
Jun 2004273
May 2004254
Feb 2004233
Jan 2004250
Dec 2003250
Nov 2003250
Oct 2003250
Sept 2003250
Aug 2003250
Jul 2003250
Jun 2003250
May 2003250
Apr 2003250
Feb 2003250

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-253-64-retail-kg.