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Rice (local) in Niarela

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

453–520

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

442–576

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 453 and 520 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 442 and 576 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Niarela: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 453 and 520 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 442 and 576 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 742); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 479–520 500 452–547 548 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 471–524 501 411–544 542 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 453–520 498 378–545 532 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 448–534 498 385–596 524 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 442–576 495 393–742 531 –
Price history (223 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025500
Feb 2025500
Jan 2025500
Dec 2024500
Nov 2024500
Oct 2024530
Sept 2024538
Aug 2024513
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023513
May 2023515
Apr 2023513
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022513
Aug 2022465
Jul 2022444
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022425
Feb 2022425
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021425
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021405
Jul 2021394
Jun 2021380
May 2021400
Apr 2021381
Mar 2021375
Feb 2021375
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019365
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019387
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018388
Oct 2018410
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018425
Jul 2018425
Jun 2018425
May 2018405
Apr 2018387
Mar 2018375
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017390
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017394
May 2017390
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017375
Dec 2016375
Nov 2016375
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016380
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015406
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015375
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014375
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014375
Aug 2014369
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375
May 2014375
Apr 2014375
Mar 2014372
Feb 2014375
Jan 2014375
Dec 2013375
Nov 2013375
Oct 2013375
Sept 2013375
Aug 2013375
Jul 2013375
Jun 2013375
May 2013375
Apr 2013375
Mar 2013375
Feb 2013375
Jan 2013375
Nov 2012380
Oct 2012398
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012405
Jun 2012441
May 2012450
Apr 2012431
Mar 2012408
Feb 2012400
Jan 2012400
Nov 2011375
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011388
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011366
May 2011350
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011344
Jan 2011344
Dec 2010350
Nov 2010350
Oct 2010350
Sept 2010350
Aug 2010350
Jul 2010350
Jun 2010350
May 2010350
Apr 2010350
Mar 2010350
Feb 2010350
Jan 2010350
Dec 2009350
Nov 2009350
Oct 2009360
Sept 2009400
Aug 2009391
Jul 2009375
Jun 2009375
May 2009375
Apr 2009362
Mar 2009365
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009362
Dec 2008355
Nov 2008344
Oct 2008406
Sept 2008405
Aug 2008400
Jul 2008400
Jun 2008369
May 2008350
Apr 2008345
Mar 2008319
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007298
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007294
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007298
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007275
Jan 2007275

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-253-71-retail-kg.