Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Millet in Niarela

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

211–351

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

193–372

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 211 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 372 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Niarela: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 211 and 351 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 372 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 839); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 232–299 250 211–356 353 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 223–326 251 207–413 359 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 211–351 251 176–435 353 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 198–410 247 173–839 332 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 193–372 243 162–523 309 –
Price history (261 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025260
Oct 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025344
Dec 2024360
Nov 2024425
Oct 2024440
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024385
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024275
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023338
Jun 2023300
May 2023320
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022444
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022335
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022275
Dec 2021269
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020215
Nov 2020231
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020190
May 2020200
Apr 2020194
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019193
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019265
Mar 2019256
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019237
Dec 2018243
Nov 2018238
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018256
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018270
Apr 2018275
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017256
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017260
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017250
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017219
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016213
Nov 2016225
Sept 2016225
Aug 2016225
Jul 2016225
Jun 2016225
May 2016225
Apr 2016225
Mar 2016225
Feb 2016213
Jan 2016213
Dec 2015225
Nov 2015225
Aug 2015231
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015230
May 2015225
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015213
Jan 2015225
Dec 2014225
Nov 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014225
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250
May 2014242
Apr 2014244
Mar 2014242
Feb 2014231
Jan 2014231
Dec 2013231
Nov 2013225
Sept 2013225
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013235
Jun 2013225
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013225
Feb 2013238
Jan 2013250
Nov 2012300
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012310
Jun 2012300
May 2012305
Apr 2012300
Mar 2012272
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Sept 2011175
Aug 2011185
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011175
May 2011175
Apr 2011175
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011174
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010169
Sept 2010194
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010200
May 2010194
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010200
Jan 2010200
Dec 2009205
Nov 2009225
Oct 2009225
Sept 2009225
Aug 2009212
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009200
May 2009194
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009190
Feb 2009188
Jan 2009181
Dec 2008165
Nov 2008188
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008200
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007145
Jun 2007144
May 2007150
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007150
Feb 2007150
Jan 2007150
Dec 2006150
Nov 2006150
Sept 2006175
Aug 2006175
Jul 2006175
Jun 2006175
May 2006175
Apr 2006175
Mar 2006169
Feb 2006162
Jan 2006150
Dec 2005169
Nov 2005180
Sept 2005250
Aug 2005244
Jul 2005238
Jun 2005212
May 2005195
Apr 2005180
Mar 2005175
Feb 2005162
Jan 2005148
Dec 2004148
Nov 2004150
Sept 2004106
Aug 2004101
Jul 2004100
Jun 2004100
May 2004100
Apr 2004105
Mar 2004112
Feb 2004117
Jan 2004125
Dec 2003131
Nov 2003167
Sept 2003179
Aug 2003190
Jul 2003184
Jun 2003186
May 2003177
Apr 2003175
Mar 2003181
Feb 2003175
Jan 2003175

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-253-73-retail-kg.