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Food basket in Niarela

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,535–4,209

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,313–4,462

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,535 and 4,209 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,313 and 4,462 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Niarela: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,535 and 4,209 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,313 and 4,462 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,066); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,790–3,593 3,005 2,529–4,274
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,682–3,916 3,012 2,489–4,952
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,535–4,209 3,008 2,112–5,222
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,371–4,919 2,959 2,073–10,066
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,313–4,462 2,913 1,939–6,281
Cost history (261 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20263,000
Jun 20263,000
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,000
Feb 20263,000
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,120
Oct 20253,600
Aug 20253,600
Jul 20254,200
Jun 20254,200
May 20254,200
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,128
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,128
Dec 20244,320
Nov 20245,100
Oct 20245,280
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,620
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Jan 20243,300
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,900
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20234,056
Jun 20233,600
May 20233,840
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Dec 20224,500
Nov 20224,800
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,328
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20224,020
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,300
Dec 20213,228
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,700
Sept 20212,400
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,580
Nov 20202,772
Sept 20202,700
Aug 20202,700
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,280
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,328
Mar 20202,340
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,100
Dec 20192,160
Nov 20192,100
Oct 20192,100
Sept 20192,316
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20193,180
Mar 20193,072
Feb 20192,700
Jan 20192,844
Dec 20182,916
Nov 20182,850
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,072
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,240
Apr 20183,300
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,072
Nov 20173,300
Oct 20173,300
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,120
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20173,000
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,700
Feb 20172,628
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,556
Nov 20162,700
Sept 20162,700
Aug 20162,700
Jul 20162,700
Jun 20162,700
May 20162,700
Apr 20162,700
Mar 20162,700
Feb 20162,556
Jan 20162,556
Dec 20152,700
Nov 20152,700
Aug 20152,772
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,760
May 20152,700
Apr 20152,700
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,556
Jan 20152,700
Dec 20142,700
Nov 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,700
Jul 20143,000
Jun 20143,000
May 20142,900
Apr 20142,928
Mar 20142,904
Feb 20142,772
Jan 20142,772
Dec 20132,772
Nov 20132,700
Sept 20132,700
Aug 20132,928
Jul 20132,820
Jun 20132,700
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,700
Feb 20132,850
Jan 20133,000
Nov 20123,600
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,720
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,660
Apr 20123,600
Mar 20123,270
Feb 20123,000
Jan 20123,000
Nov 20112,700
Sept 20112,100
Aug 20112,220
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,100
Apr 20112,100
Mar 20112,100
Feb 20112,091
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,100
Oct 20102,025
Sept 20102,325
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,400
May 20102,325
Apr 20102,400
Mar 20102,400
Feb 20102,400
Jan 20102,400
Dec 20092,460
Nov 20092,700
Oct 20092,700
Sept 20092,700
Aug 20092,550
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,400
May 20092,325
Apr 20092,100
Mar 20092,280
Feb 20092,250
Jan 20092,175
Dec 20081,980
Nov 20082,250
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,400
Jul 20082,400
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,740
Jun 20071,725
May 20071,800
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,800
Feb 20071,800
Jan 20071,800
Dec 20061,800
Nov 20061,800
Sept 20062,100
Aug 20062,100
Jul 20062,100
Jun 20062,100
May 20062,100
Apr 20062,100
Mar 20062,025
Feb 20061,950
Jan 20061,800
Dec 20052,025
Nov 20052,160
Sept 20053,000
Aug 20052,925
Jul 20052,850
Jun 20052,550
May 20052,340
Apr 20052,160
Mar 20052,100
Feb 20051,950
Jan 20051,770
Dec 20041,770
Nov 20041,800
Sept 20041,275
Aug 20041,215
Jul 20041,200
Jun 20041,200
May 20041,200
Apr 20041,260
Mar 20041,350
Feb 20041,400
Jan 20041,500
Dec 20031,575
Nov 20032,000
Sept 20032,145
Aug 20032,280
Jul 20032,208
Jun 20032,235
May 20032,120
Apr 20032,100
Mar 20032,175
Feb 20032,100
Jan 20032,100

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189