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Maize in Tombouctou

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

220–388

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

216–443

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 216 and 443 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Tombouctou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 216 and 443 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 900); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 256–320 287 216–367 362 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 231–352 285 190–508 361 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 220–388 280 180–647 357 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 216–435 279 185–900 398 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 216–443 278 195–766 371 –
Price history (248 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026293
Jun 2026285
May 2026285
Apr 2026325
Mar 2026325
Feb 2026325
Jan 2026420
Dec 2025420
Oct 2025325
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025375
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025488
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025376
Dec 2024455
Oct 2024455
Sept 2024455
Aug 2024402
Jul 2024350
Jun 2024350
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024350
Jan 2024350
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023346
May 2023347
Apr 2023346
Mar 2023350
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022390
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022283
Apr 2022260
Mar 2022260
Feb 2022260
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021227
Jul 2021245
Jun 2021245
May 2021245
Apr 2021245
Mar 2021245
Feb 2021245
Jan 2021241
Nov 2020229
Oct 2020229
Sept 2020229
Aug 2020229
Jul 2020229
Jun 2020229
May 2020229
Apr 2020229
Mar 2020229
Feb 2020229
Jan 2020229
Dec 2019229
Nov 2019229
Oct 2019229
Sept 2019229
Aug 2019229
Jul 2019229
Jun 2019229
May 2019285
Apr 2019309
Mar 2019268
Feb 2019277
Jan 2019366
Dec 2018363
Nov 2018366
Oct 2018325
Sept 2018315
Aug 2018315
Jul 2018315
Jun 2018315
May 2018276
Apr 2018263
Mar 2018263
Feb 2018259
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017259
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017280
Apr 2017300
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016300
Oct 2016300
Sept 2016300
Aug 2016300
Jul 2016300
Jun 2016300
May 2016300
Apr 2016288
Mar 2016250
Feb 2016255
Jan 2016256
Dec 2015256
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015288
Jul 2015250
Jun 2015290
May 2015250
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015275
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014250
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014250
Jul 2014244
Jun 2014225
May 2014208
Apr 2014205
Mar 2014216
Feb 2014216
Dec 2013203
Nov 2013203
Mar 2012261
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012220
Oct 2011177
Sept 2011196
Aug 2011204
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011250
May 2011232
Apr 2011222
Mar 2011196
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011180
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010175
Jul 2010175
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010173
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009179
Nov 2009185
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009179
Aug 2009177
Jul 2009171
Jun 2009177
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009172
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009151
Dec 2008149
Nov 2008152
Oct 2008152
Sept 2008150
Aug 2008140
Jul 2008147
Jun 2008145
May 2008145
Apr 2008145
Mar 2008137
Feb 2008130
Jan 2008128
Dec 2007130
Nov 2007130
Oct 2007130
Sept 2007130
Aug 2007130
Jul 2007126
Jun 2007128
May 2007130
Apr 2007130
Mar 2007123
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007125
Dec 2006126
Nov 2006139
Oct 2006134
Sept 2006135
Aug 2006135
Jul 2006133
Jun 2006130
May 2006142
Apr 2006163
Mar 2006160
Feb 2006148
Jan 2006130
Dec 2005130
Nov 2005130
Oct 2005131
Sept 2005172
Aug 2005198
Jul 2005200
Jun 2005175
May 2005166
Apr 2005114
Mar 2005102
Feb 2005102
Jan 2005100
Dec 2004100
Nov 2004125
Oct 2004120
Sept 2004119
Aug 2004125
Jul 2004125
Jun 2004153
May 2004150
Dec 2003148
Nov 2003147
Oct 2003146
Sept 2003139
Aug 2003141
Jul 2003144
Jun 2003150
May 2003150
Apr 2003150
Mar 2003150
Feb 2003150
Jan 2003156

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-255-51-retail-kg.