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Sorghum in Tombouctou

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

231–366

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

224–411

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 231 and 366 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 224 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Tombouctou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 231 and 366 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 224 and 411 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 635); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 266–317 293 240–343 351 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 248–335 291 220–401 354 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 231–366 286 183–498 348 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 229–390 283 197–601 379 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 224–411 284 190–635 362 –
Price history (240 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026296
Jul 2026276
Jun 2026289
May 2026289
Apr 2026325
Mar 2026325
Feb 2026325
Jan 2026370
Dec 2025370
Oct 2025385
Sept 2025360
Aug 2025360
Jul 2025375
Jun 2025375
May 2025365
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025478
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025356
Dec 2024375
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024325
Jul 2024275
Jun 2024275
May 2024275
Apr 2024275
Mar 2024275
Jan 2024275
Nov 2023269
Oct 2023265
Sept 2023269
Aug 2023289
Jul 2023375
Jun 2023375
May 2023375
Apr 2023375
Mar 2023375
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022394
Oct 2022424
Sept 2022430
Aug 2022430
Jul 2022440
Jun 2022414
May 2022260
Apr 2022240
Mar 2022240
Feb 2022240
Jan 2022286
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021262
Apr 2021262
Feb 2021262
Jan 2021275
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019265
Nov 2019210
Oct 2019197
Sept 2019197
Aug 2019197
Jul 2019197
Jun 2019197
May 2019319
Apr 2019309
Mar 2019268
Feb 2019277
Jan 2019366
Dec 2018363
Nov 2018366
Oct 2018325
Sept 2018315
Aug 2018315
Jul 2018315
Jun 2018315
May 2018276
Apr 2018263
Mar 2018263
Feb 2018259
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017255
Jun 2017225
May 2017240
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017250
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017250
Dec 2016250
Nov 2016250
Oct 2016250
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016250
May 2016250
Apr 2016250
Mar 2016250
Feb 2016255
Jan 2016256
Dec 2015275
Nov 2015263
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015281
Jul 2015250
Jun 2015260
May 2015250
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015300
Jan 2015250
Dec 2014250
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014250
Sept 2014250
Aug 2014250
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014250
May 2014225
Apr 2014212
Mar 2014300
Feb 2014304
Dec 2013219
Nov 2013219
Apr 2012270
Mar 2012264
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012250
Oct 2011224
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011204
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011238
May 2011232
Apr 2011222
Mar 2011198
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011184
Nov 2010180
Oct 2010180
Sept 2010180
Aug 2010180
Jul 2010176
Jun 2010175
May 2010180
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010179
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009179
Nov 2009186
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009179
Aug 2009178
Jul 2009175
Jun 2009179
May 2009176
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009174
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009156
Dec 2008154
Nov 2008161
Oct 2008155
Sept 2008153
Aug 2008145
Jul 2008160
Jun 2008153
May 2008151
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008143
Feb 2008130
Jan 2008130
Dec 2007130
Nov 2007135
Oct 2007134
Sept 2007135
Aug 2007130
Jul 2007132
Jun 2007134
May 2007136
Aug 2006160
Jul 2006160
Jun 2006160
May 2006161
Apr 2006160
Mar 2006160
Feb 2006163
Jan 2006200
Dec 2005199
Nov 2005200
Oct 2005200
Aug 2005205
Jul 2005205
Jun 2005190
May 2005186
Apr 2005148
Mar 2005136
Feb 2005135
Jan 2005132
Dec 2004132
Nov 2004173
Oct 2004152
Sept 2004169
Aug 2004186
Jul 2004191
Jun 2004194
May 2004193
Dec 2003181
Nov 2003200
Oct 2003200
Sept 2003200
Aug 2003198
Jul 2003200
Jun 2003200
May 2003200
Apr 2003200
Mar 2003200
Feb 2003200
Jan 2003200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-255-65-retail-kg.