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Rice (local) in Tombouctou

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

343–489

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

319–567

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 343 and 489 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 319 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Tombouctou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 343 and 489 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 319 and 567 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 813); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 361–443 389 346–501 492 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 353–468 390 321–475 497 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 343–489 391 277–542 498 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 335–536 388 285–670 493 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 319–567 382 258–813 475 –
Price history (178 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026392
Jul 2026367
Jun 2026375
May 2026375
Apr 2026375
Mar 2026375
Feb 2026375
Jan 2026448
Dec 2025450
Oct 2025405
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025325
Jun 2025500
May 2025520
Mar 2025545
Feb 2025488
Jan 2025504
Dec 2024550
Oct 2024510
Sept 2024475
Aug 2024457
Jul 2024448
Jun 2024425
May 2024425
Jan 2024480
Nov 2023485
Oct 2023480
Sept 2023460
Aug 2023460
Jul 2023465
Jun 2023460
May 2023450
Dec 2022472
Nov 2022472
Oct 2022491
Sept 2022440
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022420
Jun 2022410
May 2022396
Apr 2022400
Feb 2022380
Jan 2022391
Dec 2021399
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021375
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021352
Jul 2021318
Jun 2021318
May 2021318
Feb 2021318
Nov 2020318
Oct 2020333
Sept 2020333
Aug 2020287
Jul 2020271
Jun 2020271
May 2020276
Apr 2020279
Feb 2020270
Jan 2020277
Dec 2019333
Nov 2019374
Oct 2019396
Sept 2019346
Aug 2019346
Jul 2019314
Jun 2019294
May 2019313
Apr 2019333
Mar 2019333
Feb 2019333
Jan 2019361
Dec 2018344
Nov 2018361
Oct 2018361
Sept 2018361
Aug 2018333
Jul 2018333
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018281
Mar 2018277
Feb 2018277
Jan 2018277
Dec 2017277
Nov 2017282
Oct 2017300
Sept 2017318
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017359
Apr 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016355
Nov 2016380
Oct 2016367
Sept 2016360
Aug 2016355
Jul 2016340
Jun 2016340
May 2016350
Feb 2016340
Jan 2016340
Dec 2015348
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
Feb 2015338
Jan 2015337
Dec 2014350
Nov 2014350
Oct 2014355
Sept 2014365
Aug 2014350
Jul 2014334
Jun 2014286
Feb 2014340
Dec 2013380
Nov 2013387
Mar 2012372
Feb 2012370
Jan 2012366
Oct 2011369
Sept 2011350
Aug 2011319
Jul 2011316
Jun 2011300
May 2011300
Feb 2011300
Jan 2011300
Nov 2010300
Oct 2010300
Sept 2010300
Aug 2010313
Jul 2010312
Jun 2010316
May 2010320
Mar 2010317
Feb 2010310
Jan 2010311
Dec 2009302
Nov 2009300
Oct 2009317
Sept 2009318
Aug 2009320
Jul 2009318
Jun 2009315
Mar 2009350
Feb 2009342
Jan 2009312
Dec 2008305
Nov 2008335
Oct 2008389
Sept 2008417
Aug 2008315
Jul 2008328
Jun 2008311
May 2008314
Apr 2008312
Mar 2008306
Feb 2008285
Jan 2008280
Dec 2007282
Nov 2007289
Oct 2007288
Sept 2007288
Aug 2007297
Jul 2007298
Jun 2007300
May 2007290
Apr 2007265
Mar 2007260
Feb 2007256
Jan 2007259

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-255-71-retail-kg.