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Millet in Tombouctou

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

246–431

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

228–536

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 246 and 431 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tombouctou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 246 and 431 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 228 and 536 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,045); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 285–358 304 251–448 404 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 271–401 306 248–582 399 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 246–431 306 208–609 376 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 242–484 306 202–846 395 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 228–536 301 169–1,045 371 –
Price history (251 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026350
May 2026350
Apr 2026350
Mar 2026350
Feb 2026350
Jan 2026388
Dec 2025350
Oct 2025355
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025355
Jun 2025355
May 2025800Data error
Apr 2025355
Mar 2025492
Feb 2025378
Jan 2025379
Dec 2024453
Oct 2024465
Sept 2024466
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024405
Jun 2024405
May 2024371
Apr 2024325
Mar 2024325
Jan 2024345
Nov 2023333
Oct 2023334
Sept 2023333
Aug 2023333
Jul 2023347
Jun 2023350
May 2023348
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023388
Dec 2022420
Nov 2022443
Oct 2022442
Sept 2022430
Aug 2022424
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022315
Feb 2022320
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021240
Nov 2021240
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021270
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021275
Feb 2021256
Jan 2021250
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020286
Sept 2020321
Aug 2020273
Jul 2020223
Jun 2020223
May 2020223
Apr 2020255
Mar 2020265
Feb 2020265
Jan 2020265
Dec 2019265
Nov 2019265
Oct 2019284
Sept 2019273
Aug 2019270
Jul 2019291
Jun 2019305
May 2019250
Apr 2019234
Mar 2019230
Feb 2019291
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018268
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018256
Sept 2018281
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018328
May 2018281
Apr 2018293
Mar 2018312
Feb 2018314
Jan 2018321
Dec 2017321
Nov 2017321
Oct 2017335
Sept 2017330
Aug 2017256
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017321
May 2017273
Apr 2017233
Mar 2017225
Feb 2017220
Jan 2017220
Dec 2016220
Nov 2016220
Oct 2016220
Sept 2016220
Aug 2016223
Jul 2016230
Jun 2016230
May 2016226
Apr 2016220
Mar 2016220
Feb 2016217
Jan 2016215
Dec 2015219
Nov 2015220
Oct 2015220
Aug 2015239
Jul 2015240
Jun 2015241
May 2015223
Apr 2015220
Mar 2015220
Feb 2015220
Jan 2015213
Dec 2014220
Nov 2014230
Oct 2014230
Sept 2014230
Aug 2014236
Jul 2014241
Jun 2014229
May 2014229
Apr 2014253
Mar 2014300
Feb 2014300
Dec 2013230
Nov 2013233
Apr 2012280
Mar 2012260
Feb 2012240
Jan 2012244
Dec 2011260
Oct 2011192
Sept 2011188
Aug 2011189
Jul 2011188
Jun 2011189
May 2011190
Apr 2011190
Mar 2011190
Feb 2011179
Jan 2011180
Nov 2010185
Oct 2010192
Sept 2010205
Aug 2010210
Jul 2010202
Jun 2010200
May 2010200
Apr 2010208
Mar 2010207
Feb 2010199
Jan 2010198
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009214
Sept 2009228
Aug 2009227
Jul 2009216
Jun 2009210
May 2009200
Apr 2009202
Mar 2009203
Feb 2009189
Jan 2009171
Dec 2008174
Nov 2008185
Oct 2008195
Sept 2008190
Aug 2008180
Jul 2008185
Jun 2008177
May 2008168
Apr 2008162
Mar 2008156
Feb 2008145
Jan 2008141
Dec 2007148
Nov 2007145
Oct 2007146
Sept 2007147
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007144
Jun 2007140
May 2007142
Apr 2007150
Mar 2007142
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007142
Dec 2006151
Nov 2006167
Oct 2006181
Sept 2006180
Aug 2006185
Jul 2006183
Jun 2006185
May 2006185
Apr 2006185
Mar 2006187
Feb 2006181
Jan 2006160
Dec 2005172
Nov 2005216
Oct 2005247
Sept 2005248
Aug 2005239
Jul 2005219
Jun 2005219
May 2005201
Apr 2005182
Mar 2005173
Feb 2005159
Jan 2005150
Dec 2004135
Nov 2004137
Oct 2004129
Sept 2004113
Aug 2004111
Jul 2004107
Jun 2004110
May 2004110
Dec 2003110
Nov 2003149
Oct 2003170
Sept 2003169
Aug 2003190
Jul 2003204
Jun 2003207
May 2003207
Apr 2003210
Mar 2003210
Feb 2003202
Jan 2003215

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-255-73-retail-kg.