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Food basket in Tombouctou

Tombouctou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,950–5,167

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,739–6,435

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,950 and 5,167 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,739 and 6,435 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tombouctou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,950 and 5,167 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,739 and 6,435 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 12,540); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,418–4,300 3,649 3,017–5,372
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,255–4,813 3,669 2,974–6,980
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,950–5,167 3,666 2,494–7,303
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,899–5,802 3,673 2,419–10,154
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,739–6,435 3,615 2,033–12,540
Cost history (250 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,600
Jul 20263,600
Jun 20264,200
May 20264,200
Apr 20264,200
Mar 20264,200
Feb 20264,200
Jan 20264,650
Dec 20254,200
Oct 20254,260
Sept 20254,200
Aug 20254,200
Jul 20254,260
Jun 20254,260
Apr 20254,260
Mar 20255,910
Feb 20254,530
Jan 20254,548
Dec 20245,436
Oct 20245,580
Sept 20245,592
Aug 20245,256
Jul 20244,860
Jun 20244,860
May 20244,452
Apr 20243,900
Mar 20243,900
Jan 20244,140
Nov 20233,996
Oct 20234,008
Sept 20233,996
Aug 20233,996
Jul 20234,164
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,176
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,656
Dec 20225,040
Nov 20225,316
Oct 20225,304
Sept 20225,160
Aug 20225,088
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20223,780
Feb 20223,840
Jan 20222,880
Dec 20212,880
Nov 20212,880
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20213,000
Jul 20213,000
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,240
Apr 20213,300
Mar 20213,300
Feb 20213,072
Jan 20213,000
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,432
Sept 20203,852
Aug 20203,276
Jul 20202,676
Jun 20202,676
May 20202,676
Apr 20203,060
Mar 20203,180
Feb 20203,180
Jan 20203,180
Dec 20193,180
Nov 20193,180
Oct 20193,408
Sept 20193,276
Aug 20193,240
Jul 20193,492
Jun 20193,660
May 20193,000
Apr 20192,808
Mar 20192,760
Feb 20193,492
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20183,216
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,072
Sept 20183,372
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,500
Jun 20183,936
May 20183,372
Apr 20183,516
Mar 20183,744
Feb 20183,768
Jan 20183,852
Dec 20173,852
Nov 20173,852
Oct 20174,020
Sept 20173,960
Aug 20173,072
Jul 20174,200
Jun 20173,852
May 20173,276
Apr 20172,796
Mar 20172,700
Feb 20172,640
Jan 20172,640
Dec 20162,640
Nov 20162,640
Oct 20162,640
Sept 20162,640
Aug 20162,676
Jul 20162,760
Jun 20162,760
May 20162,712
Apr 20162,640
Mar 20162,640
Feb 20162,604
Jan 20162,580
Dec 20152,628
Nov 20152,640
Oct 20152,640
Aug 20152,868
Jul 20152,880
Jun 20152,892
May 20152,676
Apr 20152,640
Mar 20152,640
Feb 20152,640
Jan 20152,556
Dec 20142,640
Nov 20142,760
Oct 20142,760
Sept 20142,760
Aug 20142,835
Jul 20142,892
Jun 20142,748
May 20142,748
Apr 20143,036
Mar 20143,600
Feb 20143,600
Dec 20132,760
Nov 20132,796
Apr 20123,360
Mar 20123,120
Feb 20122,880
Jan 20122,928
Dec 20113,120
Oct 20112,304
Sept 20112,250
Aug 20112,268
Jul 20112,262
Jun 20112,268
May 20112,280
Apr 20112,280
Mar 20112,280
Feb 20112,151
Jan 20112,160
Nov 20102,220
Oct 20102,300
Sept 20102,460
Aug 20102,520
Jul 20102,430
Jun 20102,400
May 20102,400
Apr 20102,490
Mar 20102,484
Feb 20102,390
Jan 20102,371
Dec 20092,382
Nov 20092,430
Oct 20092,568
Sept 20092,730
Aug 20092,720
Jul 20092,595
Jun 20092,520
May 20092,400
Apr 20092,427
Mar 20092,436
Feb 20092,265
Jan 20092,055
Dec 20082,088
Nov 20082,220
Oct 20082,336
Sept 20082,280
Aug 20082,160
Jul 20082,220
Jun 20082,120
May 20082,010
Apr 20081,938
Mar 20081,872
Feb 20081,740
Jan 20081,689
Dec 20071,779
Nov 20071,740
Oct 20071,754
Sept 20071,768
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,725
Jun 20071,683
May 20071,710
Apr 20071,800
Mar 20071,708
Feb 20071,695
Jan 20071,706
Dec 20061,809
Nov 20062,002
Oct 20062,175
Sept 20062,160
Aug 20062,216
Jul 20062,201
Jun 20062,224
May 20062,215
Apr 20062,220
Mar 20062,244
Feb 20062,177
Jan 20061,923
Dec 20052,067
Nov 20052,595
Oct 20052,959
Sept 20052,970
Aug 20052,866
Jul 20052,628
Jun 20052,632
May 20052,414
Apr 20052,190
Mar 20052,079
Feb 20051,905
Jan 20051,800
Dec 20041,616
Nov 20041,649
Oct 20041,549
Sept 20041,356
Aug 20041,328
Jul 20041,284
Jun 20041,320
May 20041,320
Dec 20031,320
Nov 20031,788
Oct 20032,040
Sept 20032,028
Aug 20032,280
Jul 20032,448
Jun 20032,489
May 20032,488
Apr 20032,520
Mar 20032,520
Feb 20032,430
Jan 20032,580

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189