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Rice (imported) in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

438–520

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

422–556

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 438 and 520 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 422 and 556 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Sikasso Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 438 and 520 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 422 and 556 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 454–509 485 442–526 536 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 448–513 486 434–518 539 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 438–520 485 384–550 540 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 434–538 482 392–617 537 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 422–556 474 368–697 521 –
Price history (225 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026487
Jul 2026482
Jun 2026485
May 2026488
Apr 2026440
Mar 2026440
Feb 2026440
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025515
Mar 2025563
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025563
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024590
Jul 2024560
Jun 2024560
May 2024500
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024550
Jan 2024488
Nov 2023476
Oct 2023474
Sept 2023473
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023474
Jun 2023471
May 2023476
Apr 2023473
Mar 2023475
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022471
Oct 2022480
Sept 2022458
Aug 2022454
Jul 2022424
Jun 2022414
May 2022410
Apr 2022398
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022395
Jan 2022399
Dec 2021407
Nov 2021388
Oct 2021380
Sept 2021381
Aug 2021376
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021377
Apr 2021368
Mar 2021373
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021373
Dec 2020373
Nov 2020371
Oct 2020371
Sept 2020374
Aug 2020372
Jul 2020371
Jun 2020371
May 2020367
Apr 2020370
Mar 2020371
Feb 2020372
Jan 2020326
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019370
Oct 2019372
Sept 2019369
Aug 2019370
Jul 2019370
Jun 2019374
May 2019375
Apr 2019367
Mar 2019373
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018375
Jun 2018375
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018380
Feb 2018373
Jan 2018371
Dec 2017376
Nov 2017376
Oct 2017376
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017372
Jun 2017377
May 2017375
Apr 2017373
Mar 2017373
Feb 2017373
Jan 2017371
Dec 2016374
Nov 2016371
Oct 2016375
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016373
Jul 2016374
Jun 2016374
May 2016374
Apr 2016373
Mar 2016376
Feb 2016374
Jan 2016372
Dec 2015349
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015353
May 2015375
Apr 2015367
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015379
Jan 2015380
Dec 2014367
Nov 2014377
Oct 2014388
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014375
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375
May 2014375
Apr 2014346
Mar 2014348
Feb 2014346
Jan 2014347
Dec 2013348
Nov 2013346
Oct 2013350
Sept 2013350
Aug 2013350
Jul 2013348
Jun 2013350
May 2013350
Apr 2013350
Mar 2013350
Feb 2013356
Jan 2013352
Nov 2012353
Oct 2012353
Sept 2012370
Aug 2012368
Jul 2012375
Jun 2012375
May 2012375
Apr 2012375
Mar 2012375
Feb 2012374
Jan 2012375
Dec 2011375
Oct 2011372
Sept 2011374
Aug 2011370
Jul 2011367
Jun 2011359
May 2011345
Apr 2011344
Mar 2011348
Feb 2011334
Jan 2011321
Dec 2010318
Nov 2010323
Oct 2010323
Sept 2010324
Aug 2010325
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010316
May 2010284
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010324
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010323
Dec 2009311
Nov 2009317
Oct 2009325
Sept 2009325
Aug 2009320
Jul 2009325
Jun 2009325
May 2009325
Apr 2009335
Mar 2009372
Feb 2009375
Jan 2009374
Dec 2008374
Nov 2008375
Oct 2008375
Sept 2008375
Aug 2008383
Jul 2008384
Jun 2008370
May 2008330
Apr 2008325
Mar 2008312
Feb 2008284
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007275
Sept 2007281
Aug 2007275
Jul 2007275
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007275
Mar 2007275
Feb 2007272
Jan 2007269

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-256-64-retail-kg.