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Rice (local) in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

387–477

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

366–495

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 387 and 477 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 366 and 495 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Sikasso Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 387 and 477 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 366 and 495 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 412–470 426 395–493 519 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 402–484 428 373–551 513 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 387–477 424 337–547 491 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 381–508 423 332–670 494 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 366–495 421 300–591 485 –
Price history (223 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026426
Jul 2026423
Jun 2026423
May 2026424
Apr 2026424
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026425
Jan 2026453
Dec 2025459
Oct 2025469
Sept 2025474
Aug 2025475
Jun 2025478
May 2025477
Apr 2025485
Mar 2025496
Feb 2025499
Jan 2025496
Dec 2024498
Nov 2024496
Oct 2024561
Sept 2024552
Aug 2024527
Jul 2024511
Jun 2024491
May 2024483
Apr 2024477
Mar 2024473
Jan 2024426
Nov 2023442
Oct 2023451
Sept 2023474
Aug 2023474
Jul 2023462
Jun 2023469
May 2023474
Apr 2023472
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022475
Nov 2022463
Oct 2022488
Sept 2022499
Aug 2022464
Jul 2022415
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022401
Mar 2022395
Feb 2022391
Jan 2022381
Dec 2021376
Nov 2021391
Oct 2021399
Sept 2021399
Aug 2021385
Jul 2021374
Jun 2021371
May 2021374
Apr 2021369
Mar 2021357
Feb 2021358
Dec 2020349
Nov 2020345
Oct 2020373
Sept 2020359
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020344
Jun 2020349
May 2020349
Apr 2020338
Mar 2020335
Feb 2020328
Jan 2020326
Dec 2019355
Nov 2019338
Oct 2019347
Sept 2019348
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019354
Jun 2019346
May 2019348
Apr 2019368
Mar 2019356
Feb 2019346
Jan 2019358
Dec 2018371
Nov 2018359
Oct 2018372
Sept 2018417
Aug 2018399
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018388
Mar 2018371
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018372
Dec 2017369
Nov 2017363
Oct 2017380
Sept 2017369
Aug 2017351
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017343
Apr 2017341
Mar 2017336
Feb 2017334
Jan 2017332
Dec 2016334
Nov 2016338
Oct 2016347
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016349
Jul 2016349
Jun 2016350
May 2016346
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016331
Feb 2016326
Jan 2016319
Dec 2015332
Nov 2015351
Oct 2015389
May 2015370
Apr 2015350
Mar 2015329
Feb 2015321
Jan 2015325
Dec 2014325
Nov 2014344
Oct 2014350
Sept 2014349
Aug 2014338
Jul 2014330
Jun 2014326
May 2014325
Apr 2014303
Mar 2014320
Feb 2014319
Jan 2014323
Dec 2013325
Nov 2013328
Oct 2013326
Sept 2013333
Aug 2013338
Jul 2013341
Jun 2013344
May 2013346
Apr 2013341
Mar 2013346
Feb 2013332
Jan 2013325
Nov 2012335
Oct 2012375
Sept 2012388
Aug 2012409
Jul 2012419
Jun 2012424
May 2012425
Apr 2012418
Mar 2012392
Feb 2012406
Jan 2012375
Dec 2011375
Oct 2011388
Sept 2011385
Aug 2011372
Jul 2011368
Jun 2011360
May 2011346
Apr 2011329
Mar 2011322
Feb 2011316
Jan 2011316
Dec 2010322
Nov 2010325
Oct 2010325
Sept 2010328
Aug 2010326
Jul 2010325
Jun 2010310
May 2010325
Apr 2010325
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010324
Dec 2009316
Nov 2009316
Oct 2009350
Sept 2009374
Aug 2009373
Jul 2009374
Jun 2009374
May 2009353
Apr 2009350
Mar 2009350
Feb 2009350
Jan 2009350
Dec 2008350
Nov 2008345
Oct 2008406
Sept 2008415
Aug 2008424
Jul 2008405
Jun 2008356
May 2008329
Apr 2008321
Mar 2008306
Feb 2008281
Jan 2008276
Dec 2007275
Nov 2007286
Oct 2007295
Sept 2007297
Aug 2007299
Jul 2007293
Jun 2007298
May 2007292
Apr 2007262
Mar 2007264
Feb 2007273
Jan 2007269

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-256-71-retail-kg.