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Millet in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

216–354

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

196–353

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 216 and 354 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sikasso Centre: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 216 and 354 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 353 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 236–307 256 211–334 350 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 224–332 257 215–409 355 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 216–354 256 190–411 361 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 209–368 249 202–455 341 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 196–353 243 169–409 304 –
Price history (274 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026258
Jul 2026242
Jun 2026248
May 2026250
Apr 2026249
Mar 2026252
Feb 2026252
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025266
Oct 2025293
Sept 2025299
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025304
Jun 2025318
May 2025334
Apr 2025344
Mar 2025310
Feb 2025343
Jan 2025310
Dec 2024346
Nov 2024433
Oct 2024441
Sept 2024406
Aug 2024405
Jul 2024390
Jun 2024302
May 2024283
Apr 2024278
Mar 2024271
Jan 2024253
Nov 2023276
Oct 2023293
Sept 2023301
Aug 2023295
Jul 2023285
Jun 2023290
May 2023304
Apr 2023311
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022370
Nov 2022428
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022454
Aug 2022443
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022401
May 2022396
Apr 2022389
Mar 2022328
Feb 2022310
Jan 2022264
Dec 2021281
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021216
Sept 2021201
Aug 2021202
Jul 2021199
Jun 2021196
May 2021191
Apr 2021191
Mar 2021191
Feb 2021186
Jan 2021186
Dec 2020223
Nov 2020226
Oct 2020238
Sept 2020241
Aug 2020214
Jul 2020195
Jun 2020198
May 2020193
Apr 2020196
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020196
Jan 2020193
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019190
Oct 2019191
Sept 2019190
Aug 2019191
Jul 2019190
Jun 2019197
May 2019198
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019199
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019235
Dec 2018230
Nov 2018235
Oct 2018248
Sept 2018249
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018245
May 2018252
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018251
Feb 2018248
Jan 2018238
Dec 2017268
Nov 2017282
Oct 2017297
Sept 2017283
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017227
Jun 2017226
May 2017220
Apr 2017203
Mar 2017201
Feb 2017201
Jan 2017198
Dec 2016210
Nov 2016224
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016198
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016199
Apr 2016198
Mar 2016196
Feb 2016196
Jan 2016195
Dec 2015195
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015196
Apr 2015190
Mar 2015190
Feb 2015190
Jan 2015190
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014209
Oct 2014222
Sept 2014208
Aug 2014211
Jul 2014210
Jun 2014208
May 2014205
Apr 2014203
Mar 2014205
Feb 2014204
Jan 2014218
Dec 2013221
Nov 2013228
Oct 2013230
Sept 2013217
Aug 2013220
Jul 2013219
Jun 2013217
May 2013225
Apr 2013225
Mar 2013225
Feb 2013230
Jan 2013220
Nov 2012305
Oct 2012312
Sept 2012312
Aug 2012301
Jul 2012304
Jun 2012300
May 2012300
Apr 2012288
Mar 2012252
Feb 2012250
Jan 2012243
Dec 2011250
Oct 2011176
Sept 2011177
Aug 2011178
Jul 2011181
Jun 2011176
May 2011174
Apr 2011176
Mar 2011168
Feb 2011166
Jan 2011167
Dec 2010165
Nov 2010167
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010180
Aug 2010186
Jul 2010186
Jun 2010182
May 2010174
Apr 2010175
Mar 2010175
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010174
Dec 2009178
Nov 2009207
Oct 2009214
Sept 2009221
Aug 2009197
Jul 2009178
Jun 2009176
May 2009159
Apr 2009154
Mar 2009157
Feb 2009150
Jan 2009150
Dec 2008156
Nov 2008186
Oct 2008190
Sept 2008188
Aug 2008186
Jul 2008189
Jun 2008159
May 2008141
Apr 2008137
Mar 2008128
Feb 2008126
Jan 2008136
Dec 2007146
Nov 2007142
Oct 2007139
Sept 2007145
Aug 2007129
Jul 2007127
Jun 2007127
May 2007126
Apr 2007126
Mar 2007126
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007125
Dec 2006126
Nov 2006129
Oct 2006140
Sept 2006154
Aug 2006150
Jul 2006149
Jun 2006150
May 2006150
Apr 2006150
Mar 2006150
Feb 2006141
Jan 2006134
Dec 2005156
Nov 2005203
Oct 2005245
Sept 2005243
Jul 2005221
Jun 2005183
May 2005177
Apr 2005166
Mar 2005150
Feb 2005136
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004126
Nov 2004127
Oct 2004121
Sept 2004110
Aug 2004111
Jul 2004114
Jun 2004110
Apr 2004108
Mar 2004105
Feb 2004107
Jan 2004119
Dec 2003128
Nov 2003148
Oct 2003170
Sept 2003175
Aug 2003171
Jul 2003173
Jun 2003175
May 2003174
Apr 2003174
Mar 2003171
Feb 2003157
Jan 2003159

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-256-73-retail-kg.