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Food basket in Sikasso Centre

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,594–4,247

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,353–4,236

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,096 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,594 and 4,247 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,353 and 4,236 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Sikasso Centre: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,096 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,594 and 4,247 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,353 and 4,236 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,828–3,687 3,077 2,527–4,003
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,692–3,982 3,083 2,580–4,903
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,594–4,247 3,077 2,282–4,927
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,506–4,415 2,984 2,421–5,456
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,353–4,236 2,911 2,023–4,913
Cost history (274 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,096
Jul 20262,910
Jun 20262,976
May 20263,000
Apr 20262,988
Mar 20263,024
Feb 20263,024
Jan 20263,000
Dec 20253,195
Oct 20253,516
Sept 20253,588
Aug 20253,600
Jul 20253,645
Jun 20253,816
May 20254,008
Apr 20254,128
Mar 20253,720
Feb 20254,116
Jan 20253,720
Dec 20244,152
Nov 20245,196
Oct 20245,292
Sept 20244,872
Aug 20244,860
Jul 20244,680
Jun 20243,624
May 20243,396
Apr 20243,336
Mar 20243,252
Jan 20243,036
Nov 20233,312
Oct 20233,516
Sept 20233,612
Aug 20233,540
Jul 20233,420
Jun 20233,480
May 20233,648
Apr 20233,732
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20224,440
Nov 20225,136
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,448
Aug 20225,316
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,812
May 20224,752
Apr 20224,668
Mar 20223,936
Feb 20223,720
Jan 20223,168
Dec 20213,372
Nov 20213,096
Oct 20212,592
Sept 20212,412
Aug 20212,424
Jul 20212,388
Jun 20212,352
May 20212,292
Apr 20212,295
Mar 20212,292
Feb 20212,232
Jan 20212,232
Dec 20202,676
Nov 20202,712
Oct 20202,856
Sept 20202,892
Aug 20202,568
Jul 20202,340
Jun 20202,376
May 20202,316
Apr 20202,352
Mar 20202,340
Feb 20202,352
Jan 20202,316
Dec 20192,376
Nov 20192,280
Oct 20192,292
Sept 20192,280
Aug 20192,292
Jul 20192,280
Jun 20192,364
May 20192,376
Apr 20192,400
Mar 20192,388
Feb 20192,400
Jan 20192,820
Dec 20182,760
Nov 20182,820
Oct 20182,976
Sept 20182,988
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20182,940
May 20183,024
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,012
Feb 20182,976
Jan 20182,856
Dec 20173,216
Nov 20173,384
Oct 20173,564
Sept 20173,396
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20172,724
Jun 20172,712
May 20172,640
Apr 20172,436
Mar 20172,412
Feb 20172,412
Jan 20172,376
Dec 20162,520
Nov 20162,688
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,376
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,388
Apr 20162,376
Mar 20162,352
Feb 20162,352
Jan 20162,340
Dec 20152,340
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,352
Apr 20152,280
Mar 20152,280
Feb 20152,280
Jan 20152,280
Dec 20142,400
Nov 20142,508
Oct 20142,664
Sept 20142,496
Aug 20142,532
Jul 20142,520
Jun 20142,496
May 20142,460
Apr 20142,436
Mar 20142,460
Feb 20142,448
Jan 20142,616
Dec 20132,652
Nov 20132,736
Oct 20132,760
Sept 20132,604
Aug 20132,640
Jul 20132,628
Jun 20132,604
May 20132,700
Apr 20132,700
Mar 20132,700
Feb 20132,760
Jan 20132,640
Nov 20123,660
Oct 20123,744
Sept 20123,744
Aug 20123,612
Jul 20123,648
Jun 20123,600
May 20123,600
Apr 20123,456
Mar 20123,030
Feb 20123,000
Jan 20122,916
Dec 20113,000
Oct 20112,114
Sept 20112,124
Aug 20112,133
Jul 20112,170
Jun 20112,109
May 20112,086
Apr 20112,115
Mar 20112,013
Feb 20111,989
Jan 20112,004
Dec 20101,983
Nov 20102,004
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,157
Aug 20102,234
Jul 20102,232
Jun 20102,184
May 20102,094
Apr 20102,100
Mar 20102,100
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,090
Dec 20092,139
Nov 20092,489
Oct 20092,573
Sept 20092,648
Aug 20092,369
Jul 20092,136
Jun 20092,109
May 20091,908
Apr 20091,848
Mar 20091,886
Feb 20091,794
Jan 20091,800
Dec 20081,875
Nov 20082,227
Oct 20082,280
Sept 20082,262
Aug 20082,234
Jul 20082,271
Jun 20081,903
May 20081,695
Apr 20081,644
Mar 20081,541
Feb 20081,512
Jan 20081,635
Dec 20071,750
Nov 20071,704
Oct 20071,669
Sept 20071,740
Aug 20071,548
Jul 20071,522
Jun 20071,524
May 20071,518
Apr 20071,512
Mar 20071,506
Feb 20071,494
Jan 20071,500
Dec 20061,507
Nov 20061,545
Oct 20061,685
Sept 20061,854
Aug 20061,797
Jul 20061,788
Jun 20061,802
May 20061,800
Apr 20061,798
Mar 20061,796
Feb 20061,692
Jan 20061,613
Dec 20051,873
Nov 20052,435
Oct 20052,939
Sept 20052,916
Jul 20052,650
Jun 20052,196
May 20052,124
Apr 20051,986
Mar 20051,797
Feb 20051,632
Jan 20051,496
Dec 20041,518
Nov 20041,522
Oct 20041,451
Sept 20041,317
Aug 20041,329
Jul 20041,363
Jun 20041,319
Apr 20041,302
Mar 20041,257
Feb 20041,280
Jan 20041,424
Dec 20031,532
Nov 20031,775
Oct 20032,036
Sept 20032,100
Aug 20032,056
Jul 20032,081
Jun 20032,097
May 20032,091
Apr 20032,084
Mar 20032,056
Feb 20031,886
Jan 20031,905

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189