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Beans (niebe) in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

325–680

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

271–722

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 325 and 680 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 271 and 722 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 325 and 680 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 271 and 722 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 435–606 507 348–788 706 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 367–638 491 261–1,024 653 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 325–680 470 185–1,109 629 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 284–690 425 141–1,169 570 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 271–722 416 123–1,098 551 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026470
Feb 2026452
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025575
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025950
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025540
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025540
Dec 2024520
Nov 2024660
Oct 2024760
Sept 20241,000
Aug 20241,000
Jul 2024925
Jun 2024750
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024480
Jan 2024480
Nov 2023480
Oct 2023480
Jul 2023480
Jun 2023484
May 2023485
Apr 2023485
Oct 2022713
Sept 2022750
Aug 2022750
Jul 2022725
Jun 2022650
May 2022650
Apr 2022650
Mar 2022650
Feb 2022600
Jan 2022600
Dec 2021640
Nov 2021700
Oct 2021700
Sept 2021700
Aug 2021670
Jul 2021580
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021428
Jan 2021310
Dec 2020358
Nov 2020358
Oct 2020310
Sept 2020318
Aug 2020340
Jul 2020340
Jun 2020340
May 2020473
Apr 2020300
Mar 2020300
Feb 2020356
Jan 2020389
Dec 2019410
Nov 2019562
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019500
Aug 2019547
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019476
May 2019470
Apr 2019438
Mar 2019437
Feb 2019360
Jan 2019402
Dec 2018455
Nov 2018402
Oct 2018475
Sept 2018550
Aug 2018605
Jul 2018590
Jun 2018642
May 2018564
Apr 2018475
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017440
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017462
Jul 2017462
Jun 2017463
May 2017425
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017388
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017373
Dec 2016338
Nov 2016386
Oct 2016475
Sept 2016475
Aug 2016513
Jul 2016475
Jun 2016475
May 2016475
Apr 2016475
Mar 2016475
Feb 2016475
Jan 2016475
Dec 2015470
Nov 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015453
Aug 2015463
Jul 2015463
Jun 2015463
May 2015438
Apr 2015363
Mar 2015363
Feb 2015363
Jan 2015363

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-120-retail-kg.