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Maize in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

244–356

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

231–375

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 231 and 375 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 356 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 231 and 375 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 509); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 269–325 294 252–364 367 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 256–340 291 250–406 377 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 244–356 290 218–450 377 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 238–369 278 218–509 349 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 231–375 280 195–468 349 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026302
Jul 2026310
Jun 2026278
May 2026285
Apr 2026275
Mar 2026290
Feb 2026275
Jan 2026250
Dec 2025250
Oct 2025328
Sept 2025325
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
May 2025405
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025350
Dec 2024350
Nov 2024363
Oct 2024370
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024350
Jun 2024350
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024350
Jan 2024338
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023290
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022325
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022325
Feb 2022281
Jan 2022275
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021260
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021247
Jun 2021223
May 2021225
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021203
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020220
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020235
Apr 2020210
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018237
Nov 2018225
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018225
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017425Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015181
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014188
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011210
Aug 2011250
Jul 2011225
Jun 2011200
May 2011200
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011195
Feb 2011194
Jan 2011181
Dec 2010165
Nov 2010156
Oct 2010162
Sept 2010191
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010177
May 2010183
Apr 2010186
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010178
Jan 2010215
Dec 2009210
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009221
Sept 2009231
Aug 2009242
Jul 2009206
Jun 2009195
May 2009212
Apr 2009215
Mar 2009200
Feb 2009206
Jan 2009180
Dec 2008175
Nov 2008175
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008200
Jun 2008178
May 2008172
Apr 2008152
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007140
Nov 2007136
Oct 2007137
Sept 2007137
Aug 2007140
Jul 2007139
Jun 2007130
May 2007130
Apr 2007130
Mar 2007128
Feb 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-51-retail-kg.