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Rice (imported) in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

447–603

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

418–648

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 447 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 418 and 648 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 447 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 418 and 648 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 466–557 498 436–647 631 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 456–583 500 409–704 647 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 447–603 501 364–622 644 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 438–656 493 405–801 627 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 418–648 487 362–746 621 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026495
Apr 2026492
Mar 2026455
Feb 2026475
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025510
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
May 2025645
Apr 2025660
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024700
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024700
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024600
Feb 2024640
Jan 2024640
Dec 2023585
Nov 2023660
Oct 2023725
Sept 2023533
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023490
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022445
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022475
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022488
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022470
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022435
Dec 2021435
Nov 2021435
Oct 2021410
Sept 2021438
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021425
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021403
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020470
Nov 2020470
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020438
Aug 2020398
Jul 2020390
Jun 2020390
May 2020460
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020342
Feb 2020340
Jan 2020325
Dec 2019380
Nov 2019395
Oct 2019395
Sept 2019395
Aug 2019395
Jul 2019395
Jun 2019400
May 2019470
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019443
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019385
Dec 2018372
Nov 2018385
Oct 2018392
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018395
Jul 2018385
Jun 2018357
May 2018382
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018385
Feb 2018387
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017382
Nov 2017359
Oct 2017380
Sept 2017365
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017375
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017364
Jan 2017371
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016440
Oct 2016397
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016375
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016375
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015375
May 2015375
Apr 2015375
Mar 2015375
Feb 2015375
Jan 2015375
Dec 2014375
Nov 2014375
Oct 2014375
Sept 2014375
Aug 2014375
Jul 2014375
Jun 2014375
May 2014375
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011394
Jul 2011375
Jun 2011375
May 2011362
Apr 2011350
Mar 2011350
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011331
Dec 2010333
Nov 2010344
Oct 2010350
Sept 2010355
Aug 2010369
Jul 2010370
Jun 2010342
May 2010350
Apr 2010345
Mar 2010325
Feb 2010325
Jan 2010325
Dec 2009340
Nov 2009333
Oct 2009350
Sept 2009344
Aug 2009350
Jul 2009345
Jun 2009350
May 2009362
Apr 2009370
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009400
Jan 2009369
Dec 2008379
Nov 2008400
Oct 2008400
Sept 2008400
Aug 2008450
Jul 2008430
Jun 2008381
May 2008350
Apr 2008350
Mar 2008338
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008300
Dec 2007300
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007300
Mar 2007300
Feb 2007300
Jan 2007300

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-64-retail-kg.