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Sorghum in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

252–379

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

232–388

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 379 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 232 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 379 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 232 and 388 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 273–338 297 246–393 381 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 268–360 300 238–484 391 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 252–379 300 208–504 381 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 239–378 292 208–470 357 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 232–388 291 186–441 360 –
Price history (184 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026295
Jul 2026310
Jun 2026300
May 2026320
Apr 2026320
Mar 2026310
Feb 2026300
Oct 2025328
Aug 2025340
May 2025328
Apr 2025400
Oct 2024425
Sept 2024425
Aug 2024425
Jul 2024425
Jun 2024369
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024325
Jan 2024312
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023305
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Oct 2022375
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022350
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021243
Oct 2021235
Sept 2021233
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021225
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020228
Aug 2020235
Jul 2020235
Jun 2020225
May 2020235
Apr 2020210
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019225
Feb 2019225
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017219
Jun 2017213
May 2017218
Apr 2017210
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Oct 2011181
Sept 2011168
Aug 2011168
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011180
May 2011195
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011195
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Nov 2010156
Oct 2010162
Sept 2010182
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010195
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010176
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010185
Dec 2009186
Nov 2009193
Oct 2009198
Sept 2009212
Aug 2009208
Jul 2009195
Jun 2009174
May 2009178
Apr 2009178
Mar 2009178
Feb 2009178
Jan 2009159
Dec 2008139
Nov 2008140
Oct 2008187
Sept 2008182
Aug 2008175
Jul 2008179
Jun 2008164
May 2008152
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008147
Dec 2007141
Nov 2007142
Oct 2007142
Sept 2007136
Aug 2007142
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007125
May 2007125
Apr 2007135
Mar 2007135
Feb 2007127
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-65-retail-kg.