Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Rice (local) in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

437–667

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

389–782

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 24% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 437 and 667 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 782 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 24% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 437 and 667 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 389 and 782 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,213); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 495–618 565 443–682 645 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 473–658 563 406–678 656 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 437–667 545 373–688 596 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 404–705 497 325–885 545 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 389–782 482 304–1,213 538 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026584
Jul 2026520
Jun 2026492
May 2026470
Apr 2026460
Mar 2026435
Feb 2026428
Jan 2026460
Dec 2025500
Oct 2025655
Sept 2025650
Aug 2025650
May 2025640
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024638
Oct 2024740
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024650
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024500
Feb 2024500
Jan 2024475
Dec 2023375
Nov 2023660
Oct 2023605
Sept 2023555
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023443
Jun 2023425
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023425
Dec 2022390
Nov 2022440
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022475
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022492
Jun 2022475
May 2022468
Apr 2022475
Mar 2022440
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021418
Oct 2021435
Sept 2021435
Aug 2021435
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021413
May 2021400
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021345
Feb 2021435
Jan 2021345
Dec 2020408
Nov 2020408
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020440
Aug 2020404
Jul 2020385
Jun 2020375
May 2020395
Apr 2020325
Mar 2020317
Feb 2020315
Jan 2020325
Dec 2019325
Nov 2019365
Oct 2019420
Sept 2019407
Aug 2019395
Jul 2019395
Jun 2019412
May 2019400
Apr 2019260
Mar 2019325
Feb 2019300
Jan 2019347
Dec 2018342
Nov 2018348
Oct 2018392
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018387
Jun 2018350
May 2018350
Apr 2018325
Mar 2018302
Feb 2018300
Jan 2018300
Dec 2017325
Nov 2017341
Oct 2017393
Sept 2017410
Aug 2017425
Jul 2017425
Jun 2017400
May 2017421
Apr 2017418
Mar 2017413
Feb 2017403
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016425
Nov 2016444
Oct 2016423
Sept 2016413
Aug 2016413
Jul 2016413
Jun 2016413
May 2016403
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015396
Nov 2015375
Oct 2015375
May 2015388
Apr 2015388
Mar 2015388
Feb 2015388
Jan 2015388
Dec 2014388
Nov 2014388
Oct 2014388
Sept 2014388
Aug 2014388
Jul 2014388
Jun 2014388
May 2014388
Oct 2011375
Sept 2011382
Aug 2011384
Jul 2011381
Jun 2011388
May 2011350
Apr 2011338
Mar 2011338
Feb 2011350
Jan 2011350
Dec 2010350
Nov 2010366
Oct 2010380
Sept 2010372
Aug 2010378
Jul 2010388
Jun 2010375
May 2010375
Apr 2010372
Mar 2010362
Feb 2010362
Jan 2010362
Dec 2009370
Nov 2009371
Oct 2009377
Sept 2009378
Aug 2009362
Jul 2009350
Jun 2009350
May 2009362
Apr 2009360
Mar 2009375
Feb 2009388
Jan 2009331
Dec 2008386
Nov 2008416
Oct 2008431
Sept 2008426
Aug 2008435
Jul 2008435
Jun 2008388
May 2008355
Apr 2008348
Mar 2008330
Feb 2008294
Jan 2008269
Dec 2007250
Nov 2007260
Oct 2007300
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007294
Jun 2007275
May 2007275
Apr 2007269
Mar 2007250
Feb 2007237
Jan 2007226

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-71-retail-kg.