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Millet in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

272–439

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

260–515

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 272 and 439 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 260 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ansongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 272 and 439 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 260 and 515 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 835); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 290–383 329 282–442 395 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 272–411 326 253–532 384 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 272–439 322 264–599 388 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 260–479 326 228–717 397 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 260–515 308 247–835 374 –
Price history (193 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026333
Jul 2026294
Jun 2026296
May 2026305
Apr 2026288
Mar 2026288
Feb 2026282
Jan 2026280
Oct 2025325
Sept 2025338
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
May 2025328
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025350
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024525
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024475
Jun 2024419
May 2024350
Apr 2024350
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024338
Jan 2024325
Dec 2023312
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023332
Jun 2023325
May 2023325
Apr 2023325
Mar 2023325
Feb 2023400
Jan 2023410
Nov 2022350
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022385
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022375
May 2022370
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022325
Dec 2021315
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021240
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021230
May 2021225
Apr 2021213
Mar 2021213
Feb 2021230
Jan 2021235
Nov 2020275
Oct 2020227
Sept 2020228
Aug 2020254
Jul 2020235
Jun 2020235
May 2020265
Apr 2020210
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019250
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019200
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017252
Sept 2017275
Aug 2017270
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017266
May 2017232
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Nov 2016222
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015200
May 2015200
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014200
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014212
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014206
May 2014200
Oct 2011181
Sept 2011166
Aug 2011164
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011180
May 2011195
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011200
Jan 2011181
Dec 2010180
Nov 2010162
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010187
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010196
Jun 2010175
May 2010175
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010176
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010186
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009193
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009231
Aug 2009208
Jul 2009195
Jun 2009174
May 2009178
Apr 2009178
Mar 2009178
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009174
Dec 2008169
Nov 2008194
Oct 2008201
Sept 2008186
Aug 2008180
Jul 2008190
Jun 2008168
May 2008152
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008145
Nov 2007142
Oct 2007132
Sept 2007136
Aug 2007135
Jul 2007131
Jun 2007125
May 2007126
Apr 2007135
Mar 2007135
Feb 2007131
Jan 2007130

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-857-73-retail-kg.