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Food basket in Ansongo

Gao, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,258–5,263

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,122–6,177

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,258 and 5,263 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,122 and 6,177 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ansongo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,258 and 5,263 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,122 and 6,177 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,024); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,483–4,593 3,948 3,387–5,304
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,261–4,934 3,907 3,034–6,386
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,258–5,263 3,868 3,168–7,184
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,123–5,748 3,906 2,737–8,601
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,122–6,177 3,697 2,963–10,024
Cost history (193 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,000
Jul 20263,528
Jun 20263,552
May 20263,660
Apr 20263,450
Mar 20263,450
Feb 20263,390
Jan 20263,360
Oct 20253,900
Sept 20254,056
Aug 20254,200
Jul 20254,200
May 20253,930
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20254,200
Feb 20254,200
Jan 20254,200
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20246,300
Aug 20246,600
Jul 20245,700
Jun 20245,028
May 20244,200
Apr 20244,200
Mar 20244,200
Feb 20244,050
Jan 20243,900
Dec 20233,750
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20233,900
Aug 20233,900
Jul 20233,990
Jun 20233,900
May 20233,900
Apr 20233,900
Mar 20233,900
Feb 20234,800
Jan 20234,920
Nov 20224,200
Oct 20224,800
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,620
Jul 20224,656
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,440
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20223,900
Jan 20223,900
Dec 20213,780
Nov 20213,096
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20212,880
Aug 20212,880
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,760
May 20212,700
Apr 20212,556
Mar 20212,556
Feb 20212,760
Jan 20212,820
Nov 20203,300
Oct 20202,724
Sept 20202,736
Aug 20203,048
Jul 20202,820
Jun 20202,820
May 20203,180
Apr 20202,520
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Nov 20193,000
Oct 20193,000
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,000
Apr 20193,000
Mar 20193,000
Feb 20192,400
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20173,024
Sept 20173,300
Aug 20173,240
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,192
May 20172,784
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,400
Nov 20162,664
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Feb 20162,400
Jan 20162,400
Nov 20152,400
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,400
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Feb 20152,400
Jan 20152,400
Dec 20142,400
Nov 20142,400
Oct 20142,400
Sept 20142,400
Aug 20142,550
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,472
May 20142,400
Oct 20112,175
Sept 20111,992
Aug 20111,965
Jul 20112,100
Jun 20112,160
May 20112,340
Apr 20112,400
Mar 20112,400
Feb 20112,400
Jan 20112,175
Dec 20102,160
Nov 20101,950
Oct 20102,100
Sept 20102,244
Aug 20102,370
Jul 20102,352
Jun 20102,100
May 20102,100
Apr 20102,112
Mar 20102,115
Feb 20102,100
Jan 20102,232
Dec 20092,376
Nov 20092,320
Oct 20092,400
Sept 20092,775
Aug 20092,500
Jul 20092,340
Jun 20092,085
May 20092,130
Apr 20092,136
Mar 20092,130
Feb 20092,100
Jan 20092,085
Dec 20082,025
Nov 20082,334
Oct 20082,412
Sept 20082,229
Aug 20082,163
Jul 20082,275
Jun 20082,010
May 20081,824
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Jan 20081,745
Nov 20071,698
Oct 20071,589
Sept 20071,626
Aug 20071,620
Jul 20071,569
Jun 20071,500
May 20071,508
Apr 20071,620
Mar 20071,622
Feb 20071,569
Jan 20071,557

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189