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Maize in Badalabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

183–265

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

170–342

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Badalabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 265 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 654); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 200–253 223 171–277 319 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 193–264 222 154–307 318 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 183–265 215 155–340 303 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 174–295 211 149–492 289 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 170–342 211 144–654 286 –
Price history (228 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jun 2026213
May 2026250
Apr 2026213
Mar 2026210
Feb 2026210
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025210
Oct 2025288
Sept 2025260
Aug 2025300
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024340
Sept 2024338
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024275
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023288
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023275
Jun 2023288
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022310
Oct 2022300
Sept 2022325
Aug 2022320
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022320
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022285
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022275
Dec 2021288
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021230
May 2021225
Apr 2021219
Mar 2021215
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021175
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020175
Oct 2020181
Sept 2020185
Aug 2020169
Jul 2020169
Jun 2020185
May 2020200
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020162
Jan 2020175
Dec 2019160
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019170
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019181
May 2019187
Apr 2019190
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019187
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018210
Sept 2018237
Aug 2018231
Jul 2018215
Jun 2018231
May 2018215
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017190
Apr 2017181
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017188
Jan 2017165
Dec 2016156
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016181
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016190
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016181
Jan 2016156
Dec 2015155
Nov 2015163
Oct 2015206
Aug 2015194
Jul 2015188
Jun 2015175
May 2015156
Apr 2015150
Mar 2015150
Feb 2015163
Jan 2015158
Dec 2014175
Nov 2014175
Oct 2014183
Sept 2014188
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014195
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013194
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Mar 2013200
Feb 2013200
Jan 2013193
Nov 2012200
Oct 2012240
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012255
Jun 2012269
May 2012250
Apr 2012256
Mar 2012256
Feb 2012238
Jan 2012240
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011225
Sept 2011206
Aug 2011195
Jul 2011194
Jun 2011175
May 2011177
Apr 2011179
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010195
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010190
May 2010181
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010175
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009175
Oct 2009185
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Apr 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Jan 2009175
Dec 2008155
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008181
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008198
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008175
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007148
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007125
May 2007140
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007141
Jan 2007125

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-858-51-retail-kg.