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Sorghum in Badalabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

222–341

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

207–394

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 222 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Badalabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 222 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 207 and 394 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 556); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 254–323 295 223–343 356 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 238–334 294 196–382 358 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 222–341 285 174–383 354 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 204–357 276 149–421 335 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 207–394 277 174–556 325 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026262
Jun 2026263
May 2026300
Apr 2026263
Mar 2026260
Feb 2026260
Dec 2025260
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025338
Jul 2025330
Jun 2025350
May 2025325
Apr 2025330
Dec 2024340
Nov 2024363
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024380
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023310
Sept 2023313
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023313
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022390
Oct 2022419
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022420
Jul 2022381
Jun 2022419
May 2022380
Apr 2022350
Feb 2022300
Dec 2021263
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020195
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020206
Sept 2020205
Aug 2020181
Jul 2020194
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019230
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018237
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018245
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018265
Jun 2018268
May 2018265
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Dec 2017231
Nov 2017237
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017243
Aug 2017235
Jul 2017219
Jun 2017213
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016195
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016188
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016180
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015194
Oct 2015206
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015194
Apr 2015175
Feb 2015181
Dec 2014188
Nov 2014200
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014200
Apr 2014200
Dec 2013200
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013200
Aug 2013200
Jul 2013200
Jun 2013200
May 2013200
Apr 2013200
Nov 2012250
Oct 2012290
Sept 2012300
Aug 2012306
Jul 2012315
Jun 2012306
May 2012295
Apr 2012312
Mar 2012275
Feb 2012256
Jan 2012250
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011190
Jul 2011181
Jun 2011175
May 2011177
Dec 2010162
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010175
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010195
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010190
May 2010181
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009200
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009220
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009189
May 2009175
Mar 2009175
Feb 2009175
Dec 2008150
Nov 2008150
Oct 2008181
Sept 2008195
Aug 2008181
Jul 2008190
Jun 2008162
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007138
May 2007150
Mar 2007150
Jan 2007130

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-858-65-retail-kg.