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Millet in Badalabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 7 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

250–429

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

240–454

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 250 and 429 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 240 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Badalabougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 250 and 429 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 240 and 454 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 633); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 281–363 301 243–493 412 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 267–394 301 222–533 419 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 250–429 301 186–574 414 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 244–456 299 204–633 398 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 240–454 297 198–599 383 –
Price history (186 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026313
May 2026325
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025388
Jul 2025380
Jun 2025400
May 2025375
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025400
Feb 2025400
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024380
Nov 2024413
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024325
May 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023360
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023340
Mar 2023350
Feb 2023350
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022450
May 2022430
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022345
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021220
Jul 2021213
Jun 2021205
May 2021200
Apr 2021206
Mar 2021210
Jan 2021206
Dec 2020225
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020245
Aug 2020206
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Jan 2020225
Dec 2019220
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019206
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Feb 2019218
Dec 2018237
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018245
Sept 2018268
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018275
Jun 2018275
May 2018290
Apr 2018275
Jan 2018255
Dec 2017262
Nov 2017287
Oct 2017285
Sept 2017281
Aug 2017255
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017240
Feb 2017219
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016225
Oct 2016219
Sept 2016206
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016206
Jun 2016206
May 2016210
Apr 2016200
Feb 2016206
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015206
Oct 2015225
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015225
Jun 2015225
May 2015219
Apr 2015200
Mar 2015200
Dec 2014219
Nov 2014225
Oct 2014225
Sept 2014225
Aug 2014231
Jul 2014225
Jun 2014225
Dec 2013225
Nov 2013244
Oct 2013225
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013250
Jul 2013250
Jun 2013250
May 2013250
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013250
Jan 2013240
Nov 2012300
Oct 2012320
Sept 2012325
Aug 2012325
Jul 2012315
Jun 2012313
Apr 2012312
Jan 2012255
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011200
Aug 2011190
Jul 2011181
Jun 2011175
May 2011177
Apr 2011180
Mar 2011177
Feb 2011175
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010170
Oct 2010188
Sept 2010194
Aug 2010200
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010195
Apr 2010200
Mar 2010200
Feb 2010185
Jan 2010188
Dec 2009185
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009205
Sept 2009240
Aug 2009206
Jul 2009200
Jun 2009189
Dec 2008170
Nov 2008188
Oct 2008191
Sept 2008200
Aug 2008198
Jul 2008195
Jun 2008175
May 2008150
Apr 2008150
Mar 2008150
Feb 2008150
Dec 2007150
Nov 2007150
Oct 2007150
Sept 2007150
Aug 2007150
Jul 2007150
Jun 2007138

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-858-73-retail-kg.