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Food basket in Badalabougou

Bamako, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,005–5,154

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,876–5,446

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,005 and 5,154 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,876 and 5,446 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Badalabougou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,600 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,005 and 5,154 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,876 and 5,446 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,598); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,373–4,356 3,608 2,914–5,911
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,200–4,734 3,612 2,665–6,396
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,005–5,154 3,616 2,235–6,892
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,927–5,467 3,586 2,449–7,598
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,876–5,446 3,562 2,370–7,186
Cost history (186 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,600
Jul 20263,600
Jun 20263,756
May 20263,900
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20254,200
Aug 20254,656
Jul 20254,560
Jun 20254,800
May 20254,500
Apr 20254,800
Mar 20254,800
Feb 20254,800
Jan 20254,800
Dec 20244,560
Nov 20244,956
Oct 20245,400
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,800
Jun 20243,900
May 20243,600
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20234,320
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,200
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,080
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,200
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20225,040
Oct 20225,400
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,100
Jul 20225,100
Jun 20225,400
May 20225,160
Apr 20224,800
Mar 20224,140
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20212,856
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,640
Jul 20212,556
Jun 20212,460
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,475
Mar 20212,520
Jan 20212,472
Dec 20202,700
Nov 20203,000
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20202,940
Aug 20202,472
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Jan 20202,700
Dec 20192,640
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,472
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Feb 20192,616
Dec 20182,844
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20182,940
Sept 20183,216
Aug 20183,300
Jul 20183,300
Jun 20183,300
May 20183,480
Apr 20183,300
Jan 20183,060
Dec 20173,144
Nov 20173,444
Oct 20173,420
Sept 20173,372
Aug 20173,060
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,880
Feb 20172,628
Jan 20172,400
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,700
Oct 20162,628
Sept 20162,472
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,472
Jun 20162,472
May 20162,520
Apr 20162,400
Feb 20162,472
Dec 20152,400
Nov 20152,472
Oct 20152,700
Aug 20152,700
Jul 20152,700
Jun 20152,700
May 20152,628
Apr 20152,400
Mar 20152,400
Dec 20142,628
Nov 20142,700
Oct 20142,700
Sept 20142,700
Aug 20142,775
Jul 20142,700
Jun 20142,700
Dec 20132,700
Nov 20132,928
Oct 20132,700
Sept 20133,000
Aug 20133,000
Jul 20133,000
Jun 20133,000
May 20133,000
Mar 20133,000
Feb 20133,000
Jan 20132,880
Nov 20123,600
Oct 20123,840
Sept 20123,900
Aug 20123,900
Jul 20123,780
Jun 20123,756
Apr 20123,750
Jan 20123,060
Nov 20112,700
Oct 20112,400
Sept 20112,400
Aug 20112,280
Jul 20112,175
Jun 20112,100
May 20112,124
Apr 20112,160
Mar 20112,124
Feb 20112,100
Jan 20112,100
Dec 20102,025
Nov 20102,040
Oct 20102,250
Sept 20102,325
Aug 20102,400
Jul 20102,400
Jun 20102,340
Apr 20102,400
Mar 20102,400
Feb 20102,220
Jan 20102,250
Dec 20092,220
Nov 20092,475
Oct 20092,460
Sept 20092,880
Aug 20092,475
Jul 20092,400
Jun 20092,268
Dec 20082,040
Nov 20082,250
Oct 20082,295
Sept 20082,400
Aug 20082,370
Jul 20082,340
Jun 20082,100
May 20081,800
Apr 20081,800
Mar 20081,800
Feb 20081,800
Dec 20071,800
Nov 20071,800
Oct 20071,800
Sept 20071,800
Aug 20071,800
Jul 20071,800
Jun 20071,650

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189