Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Sorghum in Badinko

Kayes, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

160–283

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

134–345

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 160 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Badinko: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 18% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 160 and 283 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 134 and 345 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 706); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 192–266 214 167–271 292 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 181–283 214 140–376 296 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 160–283 206 125–370 264 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 143–319 190 108–643 230 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 134–345 182 105–706 213 –
Price history (198 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026272
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026235
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026188
Dec 2025175
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025248
Mar 2025190
Feb 2025200
Jan 2025190
Dec 2024215
Nov 2024283
Oct 2024325
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024356
Jul 2024275
Jun 2024225
May 2024225
Apr 2024195
Mar 2024175
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023219
Oct 2023235
Sept 2023283
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023200
Feb 2023200
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022281
Oct 2022320
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022330
Jul 2022325
Jun 2022321
May 2022295
Apr 2022256
Mar 2022225
Feb 2022200
Jan 2022185
Dec 2021181
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021219
Sept 2021206
Aug 2021190
Jul 2021171
Jun 2021170
May 2021170
Apr 2021170
Mar 2021158
Feb 2021154
Jan 2021165
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020165
Sept 2020170
Aug 2020166
Jul 2020164
Jun 2020160
May 2020160
Apr 2020153
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020135
Jan 2020135
Aug 2018235
Jul 2018235
Jun 2018235
May 2018226
Apr 2018210
Mar 2018210
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018166
Dec 2017160
Nov 2017183
Oct 2017193
Sept 2017185
Aug 2017180
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017173
May 2017162
Apr 2017155
Mar 2017146
Feb 2017138
Jan 2017135
Dec 2016135
Nov 2016138
Oct 2016158
Sept 2016160
Aug 2016160
Jul 2016160
Jun 2016160
May 2016160
Apr 2016153
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016135
Jan 2016135
Dec 2015135
Nov 2015135
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015180
May 2015175
Apr 2015165
Mar 2015165
Feb 2015165
Jan 2015163
Dec 2014160
Nov 2014161
Oct 2014188
Sept 2014194
Aug 2014175
Jul 2014179
Jun 2014179
May 2014175
Apr 2014175
Mar 2014175
Feb 2014175
Jan 2014140
Dec 2013135
Nov 2013157
Oct 2013175
Sept 2013175
Aug 2013171
Jul 2013173
Sept 2012275
Aug 2012275
Jul 2012271
Jun 2012265
Oct 2011190
Sept 2011172
Aug 2011175
Jul 2011163
Jun 2011160
May 2011153
Apr 2011144
Mar 2011148
Feb 2011149
Jan 2011133
Dec 2010118
Nov 2010118
Oct 2010151
Sept 2010170
Aug 2010180
Jul 2010175
Jun 2010160
May 2010160
Apr 2010160
Mar 2010160
Feb 2010152
Jan 2010125
Dec 2009110
Nov 2009110
Oct 2009200
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009196
Jul 2009188
Jun 2009173
May 2009158
Apr 2009150
Mar 2009152
Feb 2009144
Jan 2009118
Dec 200892
Nov 2008122
Oct 2008145
Sept 2008165
Aug 2008150
Jul 2008145
Jun 2008124
May 2008111
Apr 2008110
Mar 2008110
Feb 2008108
Jan 200895
Dec 200788.8
Nov 2007118
Oct 2007129
Sept 2007131
Aug 2007132
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007110
May 2007110
Apr 2007110
Mar 2007110
Feb 2007108
Jan 200792.4

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-859-65-retail-kg.