Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Beans (niebe) in Bankass

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

274–566

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

255–689

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 274 and 566 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 255 and 689 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Bankass: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 18 markets in Mali, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 274 and 566 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 255 and 689 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,167); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 398–554 458 355–680 548 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 301–537 399 206–675 452 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 274–566 392 150–743 459 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 250–617 383 127–985 452 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 255–689 402 135–1,167 468 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026448
Jul 2026505
Jun 2026588
May 2026479
Apr 2026406
Mar 2026397
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026414
Dec 2025396
Oct 2025388
Sept 2025482
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025538
Jun 2025520
May 2025900
Apr 2025570
Mar 2025556
Feb 2025601
Jan 2025556
Dec 2024495
Nov 2024455
Oct 2024495
Sept 2024703
Aug 2024616
Jul 2024570
Jun 2024525
May 2024530
Apr 2024498
Mar 2024463
Jan 2024376
Nov 2023360
Oct 2023339
Jul 2023281
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Oct 2022381
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022600
Jun 2022600
May 2022650
Apr 2022600
Mar 2022613
Feb 2022565
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021448
Nov 2021482
Oct 2021428
Sept 2021499
Aug 2021448
Jul 2021438
Jun 2021441
May 2021382
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021355
Feb 2021338
Jan 2021294
Dec 2020285
Nov 2020283
Oct 2020300
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020320
Jul 2020320
Jun 2020312
May 2020300
Apr 2020300
Mar 2020328
Feb 2020272
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019250
Nov 2019250
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019293
Aug 2019313
Jul 2019327
Jun 2019335
May 2019343
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019345
Feb 2019337
Jan 2019325
Dec 2018305
Nov 2018325
Oct 2018336
Sept 2018418
Aug 2018425
Jul 2018420
Jun 2018417
May 2018415
Apr 2018392
Mar 2018393
Feb 2018385
Jan 2018344
Dec 2017327
Nov 2017332
Oct 2017329
Sept 2017376
Aug 2017374
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017356
May 2017375
Apr 2017383
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017295
Dec 2016312
Nov 2016329
Oct 2016326
Sept 2016390
Aug 2016372
Jul 2016370
Jun 2016370
May 2016368
Apr 2016339
Mar 2016320
Feb 2016315
Jan 2016268
Dec 2015248
Nov 2015270
Oct 2015310
Sept 2015362
Aug 2015310
Jul 2015313
Jun 2015332
May 2015321
Apr 2015301
Mar 2015274
Feb 2015269
Jan 2015233

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-861-120-retail-kg.